Bebeto Matthews/AP Photo
A New York subway ticker cautions riders on how to take preventive measures as concerns grow around COVID-19.
The U.S. faces its most severe economic collapse since 2008, on several fronts. One is the economics of quarantine—canceled schools, conventions, business travel, tourism, and all the knock-on effects on the consumer and producer economy; in short, the collapse of normal daily economic life.
The second is the collapse of global supply chains on which far too much of the U.S. economy has come to depend. The emblematic factoid here is that most surgical masks are made in Wuhan.
Neither the collapse of demand nor the collapse of supply lends itself to the usual economic remedies. The Fed could cut rates to zero and that will not restore travel to Italy or cause the resumption of canceled conferences.
The only entity with the reach to stem some of the damage is the same one on which we are relying to guide us through the public-health catastrophe—the U.S. government, which is not exactly in good hands. In the short run, we will rely on the residual competence of the deep state that Trump keeps trying to destroy.
If we can just replace Trump in November, the lessons of the pandemic will demonstrate the case for more robust and competent government. The absence of universal health insurance will make this calamity more severe than it had to be, as sick people failed to seek medical help. With 40 percent of service-sector workers denied sick days, nobody will ever again be able to contend that all workers should not have paid medical leave, or that health coverage should not be universal.
And we need a serious industrial policy to reclaim and rebuild domestic supply chains. Given the suffering and death that will ensue, it would be grotesque to call any of these consequences silver linings. But once the twin epidemic of COVID-19 and Donald Trump is behind us, there is an overdue opportunity to rebuild.
