The Only Scenario in Which Trump Could Resign

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My fellow On-TAPPER Bob Kuttner has occasionally suggested, in this space and others, that Donald Trump might resign rather than face a set of unpleasant outcomes, like defeat at the polls or, back in the day, impeachment and removal from office. I’ve never thought that’s a real possibility, but today, one scenario occurred to me under which I do think it’s possible.

Let’s say that Joe Biden beats Trump in November’s election, and on Monday, January 4, despite all Trump’s efforts to derail it, the new Congress convenes and ratifies the verdict of the Electoral College. At that point, it will truly be game over for Trump.

And at that point, Trump will have a strong incentive to leave office and hand over the final fortnight of his presidency to Mike Pence—under one and only one condition. That condition, of course, would be Pence’s pardoning Trump for all federal crimes he may ever have committed.

The stumbling block here would be Pence. It’s possible Pence might think such a pardon would so endear him to the Trumpniks that it would give him a leg up in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. But it’s also possible that Pence would realize any such action would guarantee his defeat at the polls if he did win that nomination, and that, most likely of all, he would be inscribing for all time his otherwise obscure name in history’s Hall of Horrors—in return for a paltry week or two as America’s chief executive.

So is there some way that Trump can assure himself that a President Pence would grant him that pardon? If, under this scenario, Trump waits until, say, January 5 to make this suggestion, I doubt it. But if he makes it now, conditioning Pence’s continuation on this year’s ticket on his agreement to grant that pardon should Trump think it necessary, that just might work. Of course, if Pence turns him down, Trump could always select a different running mate—like, say, Donald Jr., or Ivanka. To be sure, that wouldn’t dislodge Pence from the vice presidency for the duration of Trump’s term, but as Trump conceives himself less as a president than a monarch, such an action would nonetheless be fitting.

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