Unsanitized: Newfound Democratic Leverage on the Relief Bill

Also, baseball on the verge of striking out. This is The COVID-19 Daily Report for July 27, 2020.

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First Response

After a week of infighting, we are supposed to expect a Senate Republican coronavirus relief bill today—maybe. A draft was not circulated over the weekend, which you’d normally expect. The role of both Mark Meadows and Steve Mnuchin have been called into question, both in opposite directions: Meadows seen as too willing to blow up a deal, Mnuchin as too willing to make one. Add to this Trump’s usual predilection toward self-dealing—he wanted a line in the bill funding a new FBI headquarters just around the corner from his Trump hotel in downtown Washington—and you have the makings of a disaster.

Here’s what we know, and it’s not much: Another round of $1,200 stimulus checks will be in the bill. There’s a reduction of the unemployment benefits enhancement to a 70 percent replacement of past wages, which we were earlier told was impossible to do on an individual basis but which everyone is taking to mean a $200 a week boost rather than the current $600 a week (Republicans are apparently pushing for an individualized replacement rate, which will bust every state UI system in America). There are “signing bonuses” for re-employment and retention, as well as a tax credit for hiring. Add to that $100 billion for schools, some manner of resumption of the Paycheck Protection Program (a second round for troubled businesses seems likely), and more money for testing and vaccines, and you’re around the $1 trillion target.

Economic adviser Larry Kudlow also said there would be an extension of the federal eviction moratorium, which expired on Friday. This comes as a surprise, though there’s no indication of how long that will last, and of course that federal moratorium is fairly narrow as it only impacts buildings with federally backed mortgages. And expect an inclusion of the corporate liability release, frankly the only thing Mitch McConnell seems to want.

Read all of our Unsanitized reports

The problem for Republicans, as Lindsey Graham pointed out this morning, is that “half the GOP will vote against whatever the leadership comes up with.” The leadership appears dimly aware that any failure on this bill will cause far more electoral pain for Republicans rather than Democrats. Yet this admission means that any bill will need substantial Democratic support in order to pass.

The White House has even floated on more than one occasion the idea of a stopgap bill just to extend the unemployment benefits, which for most states have already expired. Right now, without legislative action there will be no federal enhancement in the next check, a benefit cut of between 60 and 85 percent for recipients, depending on the state. Asking for a short-term extension indicates that Republicans have such little confidence in finding any common ground that they know they must come hat in hand to the Democrats.

It’s not clear whether the administration is asking to extend the full $600 a week or this 70 percent replacement rate thing. Democrats should have an obvious answer: if we’re going to extend the unemployment piece at any short-term level, we’re going to do it in full. And while we’re at it, let’s fully fund the post office and vote by mail elections and a second PPP round for struggling businesses and the eviction moratorium and state and local government aid before budgets are set and layoffs announced and backup insurance for workers who have lost it and everything else with looming deadlines, too.

In other words, the “narrow” bill should be the bill. Democrats have the advantage here if the White House is asking for a short-term extension. They should take it.

Odds and Sods

Thanks to Pam Martens for this great review of Monopolized.

As mentioned before, if you tweet to @ddayen with a photo of your copy of the book, I will send you a personalized and signed bookplate that you can put inside. It’s my way of doing a virtual booksigning. I only have a few bookplates left, so tweet me your photo of Monopolized today!

Also today at the Prospect site, William Lazonick and Matt Hopkins explain where all the money for pandemic preparedness went: into corporate stock buybacks.

’Cause It’s One, Two, Three Strikes You’re Out

Watching baseball players on empty fields throughout the weekend was a surreal and kind of a harrowing experience. They were playing in many states where the virus is surging, and while fielders are certainly spread out enough to distance, the dugout looked more like business as usual. And these players are traveling from series to series, not locked into a controlled environment like the NBA, where the bubble is working.

It was a matter of time before we saw an outbreak, and it happened with the Miami Marlins in Philadelphia. Jose Urena, who was supposed to pitch against the Phillies the Sunday rubber match, was a late scratch. The team didn’t get on the plane home after their game. At least four players and as many as twelve (40 percent of the roster) have tested positive, along with two coaches. The Marlins’ first home game against Baltimore has already been postponed.

This will just be replicated all season, under current conditions in the country. You can’t have dozens of people traveling in tandem to a bunch of different cities without introducing risk. Major League Baseball is holding an emergency meeting today, and don’t be surprised if they shut down the season three games in. It was a terrible idea given the state of the nation. A bubble-type environment seems to be able to work, but not this pretense that you can just hold a normal schedule without the fans.

Also there’s no real reason to be expending this level of energy right now on what is essentially a frivolity. Simply to hold on to television money, baseball owners put everyone associated with the game in harm’s way. The country has much bigger needs than this. We can always watch the Korean League if we need an escape.

Days Without a Bailout Oversight Chair

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Today I Learned

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