Wilfredo Lee/AP Photo
Unsanitized-080620
A testing site outside Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
First Response
“If there wasn’t as much testing, there wouldn’t be as many cases,” Donald Trump is fond of saying. And liberals are fond of laughing at him for saying that. But that’s exactly what’s been happening in recent days, for a variety of reasons.
The testing situation has been one of more or less consistent growth since at least late April, but throughout August it has fallen. Considering that mandatory tests for hospitals and some schools and special circumstances like the NBA bubble are ongoing, this is even worse, as it means the general population testing is down even more sharply. Part of the problem is Hurricane Isaias, which has hampered normal functioning. But it appears to be mainly a consequence of testing delays, which have become so widespread that many who might have been tested previously have given up. CVS claims the backlog is abating, but that doesn’t square with the results we’re seeing.
It can now take weeks to get test results, at which point they become not terribly useful. It can take almost as long to get a testing appointment in some parts of the country. If test results today gives you a snapshot of one population from yesterday and another from five days ago and another from two weeks ago, how can you construct a meaningful curve that tells you where case counts are now? How can you do contact tracing and expect people to remember who they interacted with two weeks ago? Just a few days of delay makes testing ineffective.
Plus, it asks a lot to have those tested and awaiting results to isolate fully until they find out whether they have the virus. Plenty of people can’t work from home, so this isn’t even an option.
Read all of our Unsanitized reports
The testing backlog appears to be a function of two things. One is consolidation among testing labs, where if you don’t have a public university or large hospital lab nearby, most everything gets farmed out to Quest and LabCorp, who are at the breaking point. (That Quest is busy acquiring smaller labs even now tells you the problem.) The second is continued problems with the supply chain for key elements of the dominant testing kits, like reagents and these little pipette tips used in the process.
Both of these outcomes are unforgivable. One is the result of decades of economic concentration (do you know I have a book on sale about this?), while the other shouldn’t still be happening months into the crisis. That we cannot onshore simple materials for production speaks to the hollowing out of our industrial base. And the long supply chains remain pretty clogged, even though globalization fans are trying to tout a victory.
Some experts have decided that tests should be rationed, with those at low risk prohibited from getting one. That seems like a pretty bad idea if you want to have a consistent picture of community spread. The better option is to use cheaper tests, which might not be as accurate but can deliver the results quickly. Since more accurate tests lose their importance amid delays, the benefits of speed may matter more. There’s also the option of pooled testing, which can reduce the backlog and test 20 samples at once, and if all are negative, there’s no need to go back and sample individually.
A Lancet study found that same-day tests could prevent around 80 percent of all transmissions, if the positive subjects isolate. Tests that take five days to respond only prevent five percent. False positives isolating isn’t necessarily a problem for public health, though false negatives are. Still, the good probably outweighs the bad here.
In the meantime, we’re getting a terribly false picture. I’ve said all along that we’re feeling around with this virus like the blind man and the elephant. The testing regime right now is making us more blind and giving us less of the elephant to touch. It’s fixable, but like everything right now, it’s a challenge.
Odds and Sods
I was on the Majority Report with Sam Seder talking about the Big Tech hearings and antitrust. Watch here.
Lee Fang had me on The Intercept’s SYSTEM UPDATE to talk about the economic crisis and the unbalanced response. Watch here.
The Columbia Journalism Review interviewed a bunch of people, including me, about the tech hearings. You can check that out here.
I wrote today about a resurgent Wall Street innovation since the pandemic: the SPAC, which is a legal end-run around the traditional IPO process for taking a company public. There are dangers here for small investors. Read here.
This Michael Massing piece about “pandemic journals” from self-absorbed writers is first-rate.
You can read all of our coronavirus coverage at prospect.org/coronavirus. And reach out via email with tips, comments, and perspectives.
I’m Going With No Deal
It’s always darkest before the dawn, I guess. But when you use the phrase “trillions of dollars apart” it’s usually not a sign that a deal is imminent, and such is the case with the coronavirus relief package. The Friday deadline floated yesterday was not a sign of optimism but a threat. Mark Meadows told Senate Republicans negotiations would break after that deadline, and Chuck Schumer confronted him with that in negotiations and he lied about it. So it’s going real well.
A little over 29 million people were still receiving benefits as of the first week without the boost—the delay means that states, if there’s ever an agreement, will have to switch back on the new benefits, and that could take weeks, as bills come due. Pelosi beat sweeteners aside, we’re in this mess because the individual side of the CARES Act was temporary and the corporate side was not, while the state and local aid was practically non-existent. If Pelosi is so all-powerful, she’s also responsible for the dire state of affairs.
Meanwhile, hazard pay for essential workers, a key part of the Heroes Act, has been completely forgotten. But those workers won’t go away empty-handed: Indiana Senator Mike Braun (R) is circulating a resolution “expressing support for essential employees with disabilities or who are blind.” Here’s that critical language, which I’m told you cannot exchange to cover a rent payment.
Days Without a Bailout Oversight Chair
133. And speaking of bad legislation, a bunch of Democrats submitted a bill to increase diversity on the commission, with four new slots reserved for “Black, Latinx, Pacific Islander or Native Americans.” Aside from erasing the identity of commission member Bharat Ramamurti (they had to lose the word “Asian” from diversity to do it), um… there’s not even a chair! Maybe legislate that first?
Today I Learned
- That school reopening in Georgia is much worse than the viral photo showed. (Buzzfeed)
- If you add in non-wage benefits, the unemployment enhancement is not a wild overpayment, actually. (HuffPost)
- The reckoning in commercial real estate could ultimately be positive by lowering sky-high rents, but it’s creating a lot of stranded assets. (Axios; Bloomberg)
- People keep using PPP funds to buy Lamborghinis. (New York Times)
- Some dead people may get stimulus checks after all, as it’s standard practice. (Politico)
- Los Angeles mayor threatens to cut power to house parties. (Los Angeles Times)
- Big Ten players join others in making demands on returning to the field during the pandemic. This is a good moment for collective power. (Players Tribune)
- Life under quarantine: Kraft unveils “Mac and Cheese for breakfast.” (Boing Boing)
