Ted S. Warren/AP Photo
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A test subject receives a shot as part of the Phase 1 Moderna trial in March. Moderna is one of the three drug manufacturers leading the way at getting a coronavirus vaccine approved.
First Response
My wife has threatened to stop reading Unsanitized if I consistently make her angry and depressed, so in this truncated holiday edition let’s focus on something positive, or at least potentially positive: a vaccine for coronavirus. We are about 50,000 new cases a day away from suppressing the spread in the U.S., so a vaccine sounds pretty good, a salvation really.
The good news is that there are 17 vaccines currently in human trials around the world, a pretty remarkable achievement in such a short timespan. It’s not hyperbole to say this is the largest science project in global history. And it’s moving slightly ahead of schedule; the end of the year seems more plausible.
Oxford/AstraZeneca is testing three of these vaccines, and one has progressed to a Stage 3 trial (out of 4). This means it has been tested on humans against a control, monitored for adverse side effects, extended to a larger universe of humans, and passed all checks and tests. A Phase 3 trial also surveys for toxicity and adverse effects, but on a wider scale. The progression to Phase 3 makes this the leading candidate to come up with a vaccine the fastest.
The news leading stock boards this week, however, had nothing to do with the Oxford/AstraZeneca study, but a successful Phase 1 study touted by Pfizer and BioNTech. The 45-person study registered a high antibody response, and also a fever, though that’s actually somewhat normal, as it shows stimulation of the immune system. But the study is back at Phase 1, so a long way to go to hit approval, thousands of test subjects later. No older patients were included in the study, which seems like a problem.
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Moderna, one of two projects in Phase 2, has also been heavily hyped. Like AstraZeneca, Moderna’s vaccine uses messenger RNA, and a peer-reviewed study is expected as soon as this month. Phase 3 is also due soon, though it’s been delayed slightly (the initial schedule had it starting this week). Moderna has not produced any medicine in its nine-year history, but its shares are up over 200 percent on the year, on the expectation of winning the vaccine race.
These are largely government-paid studies; the U.S. government has vowed to fund all three Phase 3 trials for these companies. While the research is socialized, investors wouldn’t bet on success without the expectation of big private profits. Bloomberg and other business news sites are treating this like the Super Bowl of stock speculation. As each study like Pfizer’s is released, not only does their stock rise, but rival stocks plummet.
Why, exactly, is that the case? The global benefit to a vaccine is in the trillions and literally in every human being on the planet’s interest. Why is it automatically assumed that a corporate-backed “arms race” provides the best way to reach a resolution most quickly, especially when the public sector is already fronting most of the money? Indeed, there is no “private competition” driving the development, really, just government dollars.
There should be lots and lots of information sharing going on with these studies. We have the best communications infrastructure in global history, and scientists can collaborate as never before. This shouldn’t be a race. The questions really all come after the vaccine is developed, on manufacturing and logistics and delivery to billions of people around the world. Given that we’re worried again about having enough cloth masks for hospitals, this is a huge challenge. Maybe business innovation could be put to use there. But why segregate scientific development that’s already in the public domain?
There’s also the little matter of how the taxpayers paid for the research once and therefore shouldn’t be needed to pay for the product again.
Some of the trial data has been made public, which is very good, so experts can tear it apart and learn from it. The entire thing, in fact, should be a shared, crowdsourced, collective action. Secrecy makes as little sense as the bidding up of stocks based on which firm gets to the finish line fastest. We’re going to have a vaccine, and the faster the better. Let’s do it so the most people benefit.
Listen to Me
I was on the Trump Watch podcast with Jon Wiener, discussing various issues. Listen here.
Days Without a Bailout Oversight Chair
98. We’re looking at a decade of higher unemployment and reduced GDP, Congress empowered Treasury and the Fed to headline its economic response, and they’re deliberately weakening the ability to monitor that response in real time. You might have to conclude that they don’t want to know how it’s going at all.
Today I Learned
- Even Texas is warming up to requiring facemasks. (Texas Tribune)
- Who knew that you could just say the president running for re-election is bad at his job, and that it could work? True genius. (Politico)
- More Americans lost jobs permanently last month, despite the overall rise. (Five Thirty Eight)
- “Excess employees” is how American Airlines terms the 20,000 workers about to get pink slips. (Financial Times)
- COVID parties in Alabama, where teens compete to see who can get infected. (ABC News)
- Has the virus mutated into something more infectious? (Los Angeles Times)
- Herman Cain goes maskless to Trump’s Tulsa rally, ends up in the hospital with coronavirus. (HuffPost)
- How the pandemic led to a bump in piano sales. (New York Times)
Housekeeping note: Unsanitized will be off tomorrow for the July 4 holiday, and as usual off Sunday. Enjoy the weekend and we’ll be back Monday.
