The Post tells us that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) still thinks that a recession is unlikely. Should CBO's optimism reassure readers? Well, in January of 2001, just before the beginning of the last recession, CBO projected 2.4 percent year over year growth for 2001. In its August update, issued 6 months into the recession and 8 months into the year, CBO forecasted 1.7 percent growth. Actual growth for the year was 0.8 percent.
--Dean Baker
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