The Census Bureau reported that housing starts fell 14.3 percent between December and January and now stand 37.8 percent below their year ago level. I always caution about making too much of a single month's data and housing starts are an especially erratic number. Still, it is worth noting that the sharp declines in starts were in the South and West, regions that were not affected by any obvious bad weather for the month. The reporters who write-up this release will no doubt speak with many analysts who will express their surprise at this sharp downturn. It would be helpful if they also sought out the views of analysts who were not surprised. Presumably being right does not disqualify someone from being cited in news reporting.
--Dean Baker