USA Today tells us that: "It's been almost an article of faith: Any recession this year will be mild and brief." That may have been an article of faith from those who get their economic outlook from tea leaves and other mystical processes, but those of us who rely on economic data knew that a downturn was likely to be very bad and said this quite clearly. It is unfortunate that reporters relied almost exclusively on ill-informed economists as their sources during the run-up to the recession. Remarkably most articles on the economy, including this one, continue to rely almost exclusively on economists who were surprised by the economy. While their statements of surprise can make interesting reading, it would also be useful to include the views of economists who were not surprised by the economy.
--Dean Baker
