The media largely ignored the Labor Department's reporting of March data on import and export prices. Both showed substantial increases in March, as non-oil import prices rose 0.3 percent and non-agricultural exports prices rose 0.6 percent. These monthly data are highly erratic, but the year over year increase in non-oil import prices is 2.9 percent and in non-agricultural exports 4.2 percent. The latter can be a good guide as to the general direction of producer prices, since the U.S. does export a wide range of goods. In other words, if export prices are rising rapidly, it is likely the prices of the same goods are also rising rapidly in the U.S. We'll know more about this one when the producer price index is released in two hours.
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