A Washington Post article discussed the various estimates of the impact of the stimulus. It notes two private forecasts that put the number of jobs generated at between 2.0 -2.5 million, compared to a forecast by the Obama administration of between 3.0-3.5 million. It is worth noting that much of this difference is due to the fact that the stimulus package passed by Congress was about 15 percent smaller (after pulling out the alternative minimum tax adjustment, which created no jobs) than the package proposed by President Obama. Of course a smaller stimulus would be expected to have less impact.
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