"Experts" get away with saying almost any nonsense they like when it comes to talking about the stock market and the economy, but I think that we may have hit a new high today. A Times article today quotes Mark Cliffe, global head of financial markets research at ING Group in London, saying that the U.S. stock market has fallen 5-6 percent this year. The expert adds that if it falls another 5 percent, it could affect consumer spending and "‘Joe-Six' could start to cut back his stock portfolio."
Okay, there could be a wealth effect from lower stock prices on consumption, but this usually takes some period of time. Furthermore, wasn't the purpose of supply-side tax cuts (as in President Bush's tax cuts) to increase saving? In other words, we are supposed to believe that less consumption is bad when it happens because the stock market falls, but good when it is due to a tax cut. (More savings MEANS less consumption.)
But part 2 of this quote is the real fun -- Joe Six-Pack's stock portfolio? First, even in the era of 401(k)s only about half of the population hold any stock at all, even through their 401(k) accounts. The median stock ownership among the people who own stock is less than $30,000. So, what is the economic consequence of a large portion of the people who own $15-$30k of stock selling off a quarter or a third of their stock? As best I can tell, just about zero. Why does the NYT print such nonsense? Does the reporter think about what he is writing?
I’m writing to you today with a sense of urgency that I haven’t felt since I began my journalism career. As executive editor of The American Prospect, I’ve witnessed firsthand how independent journalism serves as a crucial bulwark against the erosion of our democratic institutions. Today, that role is more vital than ever. Can you step up today and show your support?
The winds of authoritarianism are blowing stronger. We’re seeing alarming signs of a coordinated effort to silence critical voices and undermine the very foundations that support progressive causes. As Bob Kuttner presciently wrote in our August 2024 issue, a weaponized IRS could attack the very foundations of the progressive movement. We need readers to step up and help us dig in for the long haul.
We’re falling behind in our spring fundraising campaign, and with so much at stake we can’t afford to come up short. If you value fearless, independent journalism that holds the powerful accountable and defends democracy, now is the time to step up. The American Prospect depends on reader support to stay in the fight. Pitch in today and help us close the gap. Please consider making a donation today.
–David Dayen, Executive Editor
Copyright 2025 | The American Prospect, Inc. | All Rights Reserved