NYT columnist David Leonhardt does a good job of spreading some basic commonsense on stock prices. The stock price should reflect earnings. Leonhardt notes that current PEs are about 27 against trend earnings, far higher than the historic average.
The reason for including the "almost" is that Leonhardt felt the need to say that maybe stocks aren't over-valued if profits keep growing rapidly (sounds like Alan Greenspan in the 90s). Well don't hold your breath on that one. Profits peaked in the 3rd quarter of 2006 and were down sharply in the 4th quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of 2007. It's always possible that they will bounce back, just like it's possible that President Bush will sign the Kyoto agreement, but I don't know anyone who will bet on either event.
There's too much at stake this November for us to quit. As we navigate another presidential election year, thoughtful independent journalism is more important than ever. We're committed to bringing you the latest news on what's really happening across the country this election season, shining a light on the stories corporate media overlooks and keeping the public informed about how power really works in America.
Quality reporting doesn't come for free, and we don't have corporate backers to rely on to fund our work. Everything we do is thanks to our incredible community of readers, who chip in a few dollars at a time to make what we do possible. This month, we're trying to raise $50,000 to help fuel our election coverage, and we've fallen behind on reaching our goal. Any amount you give today will bring us closer to making our reporting possible—and a generous donor has agreed to match all online donations, so your impact will be doubled.
