Retail sales normally grow year by year, just like the economy. However last year, as the economy was tumbling into recession, retail sales during the holiday season fell by 3.4 percent, according to the National Federation of Retailers. The NYT tells us that this year is not expected to be as bad, with sales falling by just 1.0 percent. Actually, this year is worse than last year. Sales will be even lower than a very bad year. This one should not be hard.
--Dean Baker
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