Last year we got to hear many of the country's most prominent economists, including the current and former Fed chairmen, tell us how surprised they were by the meltdown in the housing market and the subsequent turmoil in credit markets. Given these folks' track record, it might be helpful if reporters tried to also get the views of economists who were not surprised by this turn of events.
The NYT chose to rely on surprised economists in an article assessing the likelihood of a recession in 2008. In particular, it notes that many economists expect house prices to continue falling until they are at least 15 percent below their 2006 peak.
Some economists who were not surprised by the downturn in the housing market have pointed out that house prices will have to fall by more than 30 percent after adjusting for inflation to get back to their longterm trend path. This argument should have been included in this discussion.
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