The media mostly reported that industrial production rose in October, partially reversing the sharp drop in September. This one really missed the boat.
First, September's data was depressed by storms at the beginning of the month, as well as the strike at Boeing. We should have expected some bounceback. What is striking is how little we got.
The report showed a 1.3 percent rise. But this is deceptive. The September data was revised downward. If we compare the October index to the unrevised data, industrial production is exactly where we thought it was in September.
But wait, it gets worse. If we just focus on manufacturing, which is less prone to erratic fluctuations than the mining and utility components, we see that October's level is 0.9 percent below the unrevised level from September. It is down 3.4 percent from the unrevised level from August and 4.3 percent from the July level. This is a serious downturn.
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