The monthly wage data is very erratic, it often takes large jumps or falls flat. For example, in April 2006 it reportedly rose by 11 cents, while it was flat the following month. Similarly it jumped 10 cents in October of 2005 but then rose by 1 cent the following month. This is why economists largely ignore unusual movements in the monthly wage data. Instead they focus on wage changes over longer periods, like three month averages. Reporters should do the same. It is also worth noting in this report that nearly all the employment growth reported in the household survey was among young workers between the ages of 18 and 24. This could be a problem of seasonal adjustment or it could indicate that students feel more need to work because of difficulty getting loans. (Employment among 18-19 year olds jumped an incredible 7.5 percent in the month.) This item should have received more attention in reporting on the April employment report.
--Dean Baker