Everyone makes mistakes, but the odds are that anyone who couldn't see an $8 trillion housing bubble is not a really good person to rely upon for predictions on the economy. Joe Nocera gives a quick survey of some radically conflicting forecasts in his column today. It's worth noting that all the optimists completely the missed the bubble and the impact that it's collapse would have on the economy. At least some of the pessimists, most notably Nouriel Roubini, recognized that the conditions for a serious crisis were being created years ago.
--Dean Baker
