Rather than just noting surprised analysts, the Post might try noting that many of the economic analysts, whose views it uncritically conveys to readers, are often clueless. The retail sales number for March provides yet another example.
These analysts had expected flat sales or a modest increase based on chain store sales. What the analysts failed to note is that the sales data was biased upward because very few independent stores have opened in the last year, while a large number of the stores that were in business in March of 2008 are no longer in business in March of 2009. This means that the chain stores account for a larger share of total retail sales.
Competent economic analysts knew this and were not surprised by the retail sales data.
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