Retail Sales Fall Again: Can We Get a Big "Who Could Have Known?"

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Yes, that sound you hear is once again the wail of surprised economists who thought that retail sales for April would be flat or even slightly positive. Why were the economists surprised? They forgot that when they looked at chain store sales there was upward bias compared with last year because many of the chains' competitors are no longer in business. This one was very easy to see for economists who understand the economy. Anyone have any green shoots of recovery?

--Dean Baker

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