The WSJ article should be encouraging news to those who don't know anything about the record of the experts in forecasting recessions. In the fall of 2000, not one of the Blue Chip 50 forecasters predicted the recession in the next year. In fact, in December of 2000, the average growth forecast for 2001 by the economists surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed was 3.3 percent. Actual growth for the year was 0.8 percent. As we always say in the nation's capital, better right than expert.
--Dean Baker
