Pollster Stan Greenberg runs through some of the trends that he thinks will render 2008 a unique, and possibly even transformative, election:
* The Democrats' lead in both the Presidential and Congressional races is undiminished in the ‘core' group of the most likely voters. Usually, the Republicans cut some of the margin on Election Day because of turnout patterns, but that is not likely in 2008.
* Education - one of the best predictors of vote over the past decade - is losing its power, with both well-educated and blue collar voters moving to the Democrats. In the Congressional ballot, for example, the high school educated give the Democrat an 11- point lead, dropping to 10 points among those with some high school and 8 points among the college educated. In short, the rush to be done with the Republicans is turning America a little classless.
* The ‘opinion elite' in the country - those with a college education and earning more than $75,000 - are supporting the Democratic presidential candidate by 11 points (52 to 41 percent). The elites are apparently fed up with the state of the country under George Bush.
* While the Democratic Presidential candidate is winning the Kerry counties by a two-toone margin, the Republican candidate is only winning the Bush counties by 1 point (46 to 45 percent). The Republican nominee will struggle to come back in the battleground states. Just as important, a lot of Republican incumbents will be running in supposedly ‘red' districts and states, but find them evenly divided. The Republican Presidential candidate is barely ahead among white rural voters (48 to 41 percent).
* The Democratic Presidential candidate is carrying those with family members serving in Iraq by almost the same margin as for voters overall, 50 to 43 percent. Democratic Congressional candidates who have been prominently trying to change Iraq policy have an even larger lead, 53 to 42 percent.
* The Democratic Presidential candidate is carrying all Catholics by 18 points and white Catholics by 13 (51 to 38 percent). This would represent a major change in political direction. In fact, the Democrat is running marginally ahead among white Catholics who attend Church every week.
Keep in mind that this is the generic ballot, which Democrats tend to do better on, and which has them running against an unnamed Republican -- which actually means Bush -- rather than a named Republican, who won't be Bush. When you look at the general election match-ups right now, the Democrats retain an edge, though not an insurmountable one. It's worth noting that Hillary Clinton polls far, far worse than Obama and Edwards do. I don't know if that's because they're standing in for "unnamed Democrat" or because Hillary really is weak, but the durability and occasional size of her underperformance -- she beats Thompson by 3%, Obama and Edwards beat him by about 13% -- is worrying.
