Republican strategists have been quick to dismiss the significance of the Democratic victories during this November's elections. Republican pollster Whit Ayres declared that they "tell us almost nothing about the likely election outcomes a year from now." But the off-year gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia--held in the first year of a new president's term--usually tell us a great deal about where American politics is headed. For four decades, elections in New Jersey and Virginia have accurately registered changes in the relative national strength of the two major parties. In 1989, for instance, Democrats swept the two states, foreshadowing the Democrats' victories in 1992. In 1993 Republicans won both states, presaging the Republican triumph in the 1994 congressional elections. This year Republican candidates were supposed to benefit from George W. Bush's popularity after the September 11 terrorist attacks. But solid Democratic victories in both states may foretell Democratic success in November 2002--and perhaps beyond.
The victory of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jim McGreevey in New Jerseyis the latest step in the state's political journey from right to left. From 1968to 1988, New Jersey voted for Republican presidential candidates; but it began toturn Democratic in 1989, when James Florio was elected governor. Democratssuffered a setback when politically tone-deaf Florio broke his campaign promisenot to raise taxes. Bill Clinton barely won in 1992, and in 1993 RepublicanChristine Whitman was able to oust Florio. But after conservative Republicanstook control of Congress the following year and began trying to shut down federalagencies and cabinet departments, New Jersey voters resumed their movement towardthe Democratic Party. In 2000, Gore won the state by 56 percent to 40percent--almost the same margin by which McGreevey later defeated Republican BretSchundler.
There were three keys to Democratic success in the 1990s. First, black andLatino voters, who are overwhelmingly Democratic, grew from 26 percent of thestate's population to 34 percent--giving Democrats a large demographic head startin the electoral tally. Second, white working-class voters in the southern andcentral parts of the state returned to the fold--driven somewhat by the recessionof the early 1990s, which discredited Reaganomics, and by the Democrats' embraceof conservative views on crime, welfare, and fiscal policy. In 1992 many of thesevoters backed Reform Party candidate Ross Perot. But in 1996, they supportedClinton; in 2000, Gore. Third, upscale professionals, particularly women, beganbacking Democrats out of opposition to Republican views on guns, abortion, andthe environment.
McGreevey, the mayor of Woodbridge, a suburban township, was well positionedto take advantage of these trends. A typical Democrat, he sees himself as a foeof corporate greed and indifference: When he almost upset Whitman in 1997, hefocused his campaign on the state's exorbitant automobile-insurance rates. And heis a pro-choice Catholic and a gun-control advocate. But McGreevey, formerchairman of the Democratic Leadership Council's chapter in New Jersey, is also afiscal moderate who boasts of creating balanced budgets and keeping taxes downand supports character education in schools and welfare reform.
His opponent, Schundler, the two-term mayor of Jersey City, was a Jack KempRepublican who believed in tax cuts for the well-to-do and enterprise zones forinner cities. But he also enthusiastically courted the National Rifle Associationand the religious right; in a successful primary battle against moderateRepublican Bob Franks, he invoked his support for the NRA's concealed-weaponslegislation and his opposition to abortion under any circumstances. In the fall,Schundler tried to run a George W. Bush-style campaign, trumpeting his compassionfor minorities while pledging to cut taxes by eliminating the tolls on the GardenState Parkway. In ads and debates, he accused McGreevey of being a Florio clonewho would raise taxes once in office. Schundler also tried to summon supportamong New Jersey Catholics and Evangelicals by promising a voucher system thatwould fund students who chose to attend private or parochial schools.
But after September 11, with the economy slumping and public debt soaring,Schundler's proposal to get rid of tolls seemed frivolous and irresponsible.According to exit polls, the 21 percent of voters who thought that the mostimportant issue was the economy backed McGreevey by 56 percent to 41 percent.Schundler's voucher scheme was also widely unpopular, except among the 9 percentof New Jerseyans who send their children to private schools. All in all, voterswho thought that education was the most important issue backed McGreevey by 71percent to 26 percent. Unable to gain traction on his own issues, Schundler wasforced onto the defensive by McGreevey's attacks against his position on guns andabortion. By election's end, Schundler had changed his position on concealedweapons and was running ads claiming that his opposition to abortion would notaffect his behavior as governor.
On election day, McGreevey won all the constituencies that had backed Gore in2000. He got 88 percent of the black vote, 72 percent of the Latino vote, and 59percent of the women's vote. He took 55 percent--the same as Gore--in upscaleBergen County, a suburb of New York City that had consistently voted Republicanuntil the 1996 election. McGreevey also won white, working-class Gloucester,Burlington, Cumberland, and Middlesex Counties, all of which had voted for RonaldReagan and George H.W. Bush in the 1980s presidential elections. GloucesterCounty in southern New Jersey had backed the elder Bush over Michael Dukakis by59 percent to 40 percent. McGreevey won it by 58 percent to 40 percent--a clearsign of how dependably Democratic New Jersey has become.
Virginia has also been a swing state, but it has historically pivoted on amore Republican-and-conservative axis than New Jersey has [see John B. Judis,"Sneak Preview," TAP, July 2-16, 2001]. Former Senator Chuck Robb and former Governor Douglas Wilder showed that moderate Democrats could eke out victories if they got big enough margins among minorities and socially liberal voters in the burgeoning Washington, D.C., suburbs of Fairfax and Arlington Counties. But in the 1990s, Republicans won over suburban voters by muting their social conservatism and by promising to cut taxes. On the eve of this November's election, Republicans controlled every major statewide office.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Warner, a telecommunicationsmultimillionaire from Fairfax County, had been Wilder's campaign manager and anaide to Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd. He figured that he could count on supportfrom minorities and liberal Democrats; but in order to woo upscale suburbanvoters, he promised--in response to the budget crisis that Republican tax cutscreated--to bring "honest budgets back to Virginia" while improving the state'seducation and transportation systems.
Warner made a concerted effort to win over rural and small-town white votersin southern Virginia as well. These voters had been loyal Democrats until thecivil-rights movement hit Virginia in the early 1960s. They backed BarryGoldwater in 1964 and George Wallace in 1968 and, since then, have regularlysupported Republicans against any Democrats they suspected of being tied to thenational party. But in the past two years, Southside's textile plants and tobaccofarms have been going out of business. Warner didn't hedge his commitment tocivil rights; but he did promise not to tighten the state's gun laws, and hesponsored a NASCAR team and recruited country-music stars for his political ads.In repeated visits, he promised clean water--a key issue for farmers--andeconomic-development money to bring high-tech industry to the area.
To dislodge Warner's early lead, his opponent, former Attorney General MarkEarley, resorted to typical conservative-Republican tactics. In Southside he ranadvertisements that falsely insinuated that Warner favored gay marriage, strictergun-control laws, and the abolition of capital punishment. (Republican leafletsalso used a standard racist trick of picturing Warner next to the black candidatefor attorney general.) Earley tried to appeal to suburban voters by brandingWarner a tax-and-spend liberal--attacking his support for a referendum innorthern Virginia to determine whether to raise the sales tax in order to improvethe area's clogged transportation arteries.
But Earley's various ploys backfired: The state's editorialists accused him of"shoveling up crudely concocted mistruths." And Warner's sales-tax referendumturned out to be extremely popular in northern Virginia (favored by a margin offour to one among the region's voters, according to a Washington Post poll).Finally, Earley tried to take advantage of September 11. He ran as the candidateof "safety and security" and filled the airwaves with an endorsement from NewYork Mayor Rudy Giuliani. But Virginians recognized that the road to safety fromOsama bin Laden lay in Washington, not in Richmond.
Warner won virginia by 52 percent to 47 percent. He took Fairfax County, thestate's largest, by 54 percent to 45 percent and won Richmond by 73 percent to 26percent. But he also captured southern Virginia. He took Appomattox County--whichin 2000 had gone to George W. Bush by 62 percent to 35 percent--by 51 percent to47 percent. He won Henry County (which had backed Bush by 55 to 41 in 2000) by 61percent to 36 percent. Warner's success dramatically demonstrated that a Democratcan win the region's voters on economic issues as long as he or she conveysrespect for their culture and assures them that they can keep their guns.(Conversely, the Democratic candidate for attorney general--who backed strictergun control and a moratorium on the death penalty--was routed by his Republicanopponent.)
Republican strategists imputed their defeats in New Jersey and Virginia toinept candidates, but they were singing a different tune last summer whenSchundler and Earley were nominated. Schundler was far too conservative for theNew Jersey electorate, but to say that is to acknowledge that the state'selectorate has now aligned itself nationally with moderate Democrats.(Republicans could elect statewide candidates in New Jersey, but they have to be,like Whitman or New York City Mayor-elect Michael Bloomberg, closet Democrats atodds with Tom DeLay and Dick Armey.) In Virginia, Earley was initially seen asthe strongest possible candidate. He was hampered by Republican bickering overthe state-budget shortfall--infighting caused by an irresponsible antitaxstrategy that Republicans have championed nationwide for two decades and thatBush put into effect this year in Washington. It hurt the Virginia Republicansthis November, and it is likely to hurt other Republicans in November 2002.September 11 did affect the campaigns, but in an unexpected way: It strengthenedthe Democratic case for positive government and discredited the kind of facileantigovernment populism that Republicans have employed since the late 1970s.That, too, should put the Democrats in good stead for elections to come.
