Not long ago, the Democrats were taking comfort from their five-seat gain inthe Senate and their 50-50 tie. But the Senate, it's now clear, is far from trulytied.
On the John Ashcroft confirmation vote, Republicans held all their troops andeight Democrats defected, four of them northern liberals. On the outrageous voteto scrap new safety standards on ergonomics, six Senate Democrats crossed theaisle. In the House, 16 Democrats joined 207 Republicans. If the Democrats hadvoted as a bloc, they might have held the line.
These defecting Democrats are a series of concentric circles. At the centerare two southern nominal Democrats who might as well be Republicans, John Breauxof Louisiana and Zell Miller of Georgia. Radiating out are Democrats from fairlyconservative states who face tight re-elections (Max Baucus of Montana, BlancheLincoln of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana), or Democrats not in re-electiontrouble but with close ties to business (Fritz Hollings of South Carolina). Thesesix worthies voted to repeal the worker safety standard.
It gets worse. On the recent change in the bankruptcy laws, lobbied hard bythe banking, credit-card, and auto industries, more than a dozen SenateDemocrats defected. On one emblematic amendment, giving relief to peoplebankrupted by medical bills, Democrats voting with Republicans to deny reliefwere not just the usual suspects but such sometime liberals as Joseph Biden ofDelaware, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Dianne Feinstein of California, JeffBingaman of New Mexico, and even the party's great dark-horse hope, John Edwardsof North Carolina. The defectors are a blend of principled moderates, people inswing states, and shills for organized business. In all, 34 brave Democratsvoted to hold the line and give a break to people whose illnesses bankruptthem. And as usual, the Republicans had perfect party unity.
This fearful asymmetry between the parties happened in three waves. Twentyyears ago, before Ronald Reagan, there were independent souls in both parties.The last generation of Republican senators included liberals like Javits of NewYork, Case of New Jersey, Mathias of Maryland, Weicker of Connecticut, Brooke ofMassachusetts, Cooper of Kentucky, Packwood and Hatfield of Oregon, and honorablemavericks like Margaret Chase Smith of Maine. They broke ranks all the time. Theywere balanced on the Democratic side by a dozen out-and-out racists like Stennisand Eastland of Mississippi.
But with Reagan came greater party unity on the Republican side. After BillClinton was first elected president, the Republican minority in Congress feltrobbed, angry, and united. Then-Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole sought to blockeverything Clinton offered. He managed almost total party unity, often pickingup enough faithless Democrats--who were not well treated by Clinton--to prevail.Then in 1994, when Republicans took both houses, Newt Gingrich brilliantly usedthe Contract with America to turn the House Republican majority into aparliamentary caucus. The Contract was not only a Republican Party manifesto buta party loyalty oath. Moderate Republicans were disciplined both by the threat oflosing campaign funding and by facing right-wing primary opponents.
Nothing comparable has been achieved by the Democrats. On the contrary, theHouse Blue Dog caucus, 33 mostly southern and border state Democrats, are extremefiscal conservatives. They are currently feeling wounded that Bush, despite theireagerness to work with him, doesn't really need their votes. The DemocraticLeadership Council faction splinters off a few dozen more who believe theDemocrats need to move in a centrist direction.
Some Democrats take (premature) comfort from the expectation that a fewRepublican senators will oppose the tax bill. A bipartisan proposal backed bymoderate Republican Susan Collins of Maine and centrist Democrat Evan Bayh ofIndiana would impose a "trigger" mechanism on the tax cut: If the surplus provesto be smaller than expected because of slower economic growth, the tax cut willbe reduced. But this is weak tea as well as perverse economics. If the economytanks, that's just when we'll need a bigger tax cut.
Even if enacted, this trigger doesn't change the fundamental shape of the Bushtax-and-budget policy--huge tax cuts tilted upward, no significant money forsocial spending (except for modest increases in education). The endgame will beappeasement of the Republican moderates by trimming the overall cut, making itslightly less awful distributively, and preserving a shred of the estate tax.And then every Republican senator will dutifully fall in line, aided by the usualDemocratic suspects of Breaux, Miller, et al.
So what's a party to do?
During the mid-1980s, before he became a press agent for the Clintons, SidneyBlumenthal proposed what he called a "Northern Strategy." Let the turncoats go,he argued, and rebuild the Democrats as a fighting progressive party largelyoutside the white South.
Face it: If the Dems are going to lose every party-line vote anyway because ofdefections in their own ranks, the real Democrats might as well behave like areal opposition. Trimming their views to pander to the least loyal of their owntroops is a losing game and a spurious unity. Instead, the 35 to 40 Democraticsenators who are good liberals, and their 150 counterparts in the House, shouldfashion a true progressive opposition program and take it to the country in 2002and 2004. Maybe they should hire Gingrich as a consultant.
