For George Bush the elder, the recession of the early 1990s was adifficult subject, something best not discussed in public. As he put iton November 20, 1991, "I think more than anyone else in this country,obviously, that if the president misspeaks or sounds euphoricallyoptimistic, or overly pessimistic, you send the wrong signals to askittish market and to the people. So I'm trying to say, 'Look, we're intough times; they're going to get better.'"
But the new Bush-Cheney administration is using reverse psychology.In December, even before taking office, Vice President-elect Dick Cheneywarned that the United States "may well be on the front edge of arecession here." Three days later, George W. Bush told CBS News, "Thereare some warning signs on the horizon about the economy; both SecretaryCheney and I have spoken about that publicly." Bush and Cheney weretrying, of course, to date a recession to the late stages of the Clintonadministration. But eyebrows were raised in some circles about whetherit was wise for the new leaders to be talking down the economy.
Nevertheless, Bush has continued to use evidence of a slowing economyto market his proposed tax cut. "A warning light is flashing on thedashboard of our economy, and we just can't drive on and hope for thebest," Bush said on February 8.
So is George W. discarding his father's advice about sending "thewrong signals"? Or has he decided, as some have suggested, that the timeis right for a recession and it's better for political reasons to haveit early in his term? That "warning light" on the dashboard may be justthe signal he's hoping for.
