Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo
Vice President Kamala Harris participates in a ceremonial swearing-in of Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) with his wife Gabrielle Giffords, in the Old Senate Chamber on Capitol Hill, January 3, 2023.
The guessing game on who Kamala Harris will select as vice president is likely to continue right up until the eve of the Democratic National Convention, because she herself hasn’t been nominated yet, and it would be presumptuous to name a vice-presidential candidate. Beyond meeting a threshold test of being credible as a potential president, only one question matters: How will her running mate help Harris defeat Trump?
I would rule out anyone over 60. In contrast to Biden, Harris is now the more youthful candidate for president, and her running mate will be up against 39-year-old J.D. Vance. I would also rule out anyone who’s not likely to make a material difference in swing states, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where Vance will boost Republican support.
Among names who’ve have been mentioned, let’s proceed from the bottom up.
Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona shows up on most lists, but he’s not a great idea on several grounds. First, he was one of just three Democratic senators who voted against the proposed PRO Act, a must-pass bill for the labor movement that would strengthen workers’ rights to organize unions and bargain collectively. Second, as a sitting senator who managed to get elected from a purple state, Kelly is better staying put, even though Arizona’s Democratic governor could appoint a successor pending a special election in 2026. He’s also 60. He might help the ticket in Arizona, but not in the Midwest.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper is on many lists. He’s a popular Democratic official in a swing state, and he might help the ticket carry North Carolina. However, at 67 he’s too old to wait two terms and become the heir apparent, which could put Democrats in the same Biden-like situation. If he definitively came in as a caretaker VP, he’s the only plausible candidate who is termed out this year. What Cooper would do to help carry Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania is a mystery, however.
Andy Beshear managed to get elected twice as governor of heavily Republican Kentucky. He’s a young 46 and a political moderate. Hailing from Appalachia, he might be a nice antidote to J.D. Vance’s hillbilly fakery. But perhaps more important is how he won re-election in 2023 in a deep-red state, by focusing deeply on abortion against his Republican opponent Daniel Cameron. His campaign ad featuring Hadley Duvall, a young Kentuckian who was raped by her stepfather, was one of the most aggressive and effective attacks on extremist conservative stances on abortion in recent memory, driving him to a comfortable victory in a state Trump won in 2020 by 26 points.
Everybody knows that a Harris campaign is going to focus heavily on women’s reproductive rights, and having a vice president who knows how to wield that issue could be ideal.
Josh Shapiro, the popular Pennsylvania governor, would surely help Harris carry the Keystone State. But I’m not sure what he’d do for Michigan or Wisconsin, and the Democrats need all three. An African American candidate for president running with a Jewish candidate for vice president would be a risk but maybe an acceptable one; Shapiro won by double digits in a battleground state in 2022 with a Black lieutenant governor. And he exudes confidence, has a strong record in Pennsylvania (just play the rebuilding of I-95 on a loop), and has good rhetorical skills. The bigger problem is Shapiro’s relentless defense of Prime Minister Netanyahu and his brutal destruction of civilian Gaza, an issue that splits the Democratic electorate.
My Top Two
One very attractive candidate who doesn’t make most lists is Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy. He is progressive, a very effective debater, a critic of private equity’s takeover of key human services and economic concentration more generally, and a leader on gun control, an issue that Republicans have waltzed around despite Trump’s near-miss assassination attempt with an AR-15. At 50, Murphy would be an effective match for Vance. And it would elevate someone who is thinking about new ways to broaden Democratic appeal and speak to middle-class anxieties.
Maybe the strongest running mate of all would be Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan. Though Whitmer shows up on most such lists, the prevailing view is that an all-female ticket would be a bridge too far. Wouldn’t that scare off a lot of male voters? In fact, in winning election in 2022, Whitmer won 48 percent of male voters, a lot better than recent Democratic presidential candidates did.
Compared to Harris at the top of the ticket, Whitmer would add appeal in the key swing states of Wisconsin, her own state of Michigan, and Pennsylvania. And she would be a potent antidote to J.D. Vance. In a truly free vote at an open convention, a lot of delegates would pick Whitmer over Harris.
It should be stated that Whitmer rather unequivocally said on Monday that she would be staying in Michigan. Furthermore, maybe America is not ready for an all-female ticket—but then again, maybe it is.
