Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
Democratic Senate candidate Cheri Beasley speaks during a campaign rally at Harding University High School, October 15, 2022, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
With the midterms fast approaching and the Democratic agenda hanging in the balance, party-affiliated spending is picking up in the most critical races. North Carolina, a battleground state, will hold one of those races for an open seat in the Senate between former state supreme court justice Cheri Beasley and Congressman Ted Budd.
The race has been close for months. Since July 1, 14 of the 15 reported public polls have shown it within three points on either side. A poll from East Carolina University broke that string this week, showing Budd up by six points. But that poll has been an outlier all year, continually showing Budd in a stronger position.
The most recent polling average from FiveThirtyEight puts Beasley within two points. 270toWin’s polling average has it even closer.
Yet until recently, the contest had flown under the radar despite its high stakes, particularly on the Democratic side. Politico reported data from AdImpact showing that “Republicans overall have spent $43.8 million in ad buys compared to Democrats’ $22.4 million.”
This spending advantage, and the innumerable attack ads that have been levied against Beasley, has led many to question whether Democrats were squandering their opportunity in North Carolina, a purple state that has been tantalizing to Senate Democrats for years. Since Kay Hagan won during Barack Obama’s first term in 2008, Democrats have seen four straight close losses for Senate seats in the state. Richard Burr broke a one-term Senate curse that had held since 1968, defeating Elaine Marshall by a 55-43 margin. Thom Tillis then barely beat Hagan in 2014, 48.8 percent to 47.3 percent. Burr won a third term in 2016, 51-45 over Deborah Ross.
And in the race that perhaps made Democrats the most apprehensive, Tillis survived re-election by beating Cal Cunningham, 48.7 percent to 46.9 percent, despite Cunningham having a polling lead practically the entire race. OpenSecrets reported that Cunningham’s race against Tillis was “the most expensive Senate race in American history.” And Cunningham was roiled in controversy over racy texts between him and his mistress. Yet Democrats still went all in.
Beasley, as a former state chief justice, has won statewide twice. In 2020, she outpolled both Cunningham and Joe Biden, barely losing her re-election by 401 votes out of 5.4 million cast.
Yet she did not get national support for her Senate race until recently. Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC for Senate Democrats, has announced $8 million in new television ads on Beasley’s behalf in the past week. That is not enough to close the gap between the spending for the parties, but it does bring the total to $10 million the PAC has spent. But Beasley herself has also spent nearly $9 million in advertising, and has outraised Budd. Candidates get more favorable advertising rates than super PACs, which reduces the ad disparity somewhat.
Beasley is a former public defender running on a simple Democratic platform, emphasizing the need for health care, climate change policy, and job growth in the state. In many ways, the race is a typical one in 2022: a modest Democrat pitted against a zealous, election-denying Republican. In the House, Budd voted against certifying the 2020 election on January 6th, even though, as WRAL reported, he has since backtracked.
Beasley is a former public defender running on a simple Democratic platform.
Budd is anti-abortion in a state where abortion is a hot-button issue, as well as a gun store owner who reportedly advertises “murder insurance” for alleged domestic abusers. The Lever reported this week that Budd has consistently pressured regulators on behalf of big banks. The American Bankers Association and the Wall Street–friendly Club for Growth PAC have run ads for Budd during the campaign.
Beasley’s appointment to the Senate would make her the first Black woman to be elected to represent North Carolina, and the only Black woman currently sitting in the Senate. As her campaign gains momentum, one has to wonder why it took so long. That the race is close is not new information.
The Charlotte Observer chalked the lack of attention up to a fundamental misunderstanding of the Tar Heel State by national Democrats, who are certainly gun-shy when it comes to North Carolina. And maybe placing all of their bets on Cunningham in 2020 made them even more so. But looking back at the giant amount of money spent on his behalf might beg the question of whether national Democrats just don’t want to put their faith in a Black woman. As one local mayor put it to The Washington Post, “I hope we don’t wake up in a few weeks and realize, man, if we had just spent some more time, gave some more resources diverted from other places, we could have won North Carolina.”
