The House Super-Seats That Could Decide the Presidency

Here is one more constitutional contingency in a lunatic year.

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If this fraught and frankly insane presidential election needs one more complication, consider this one. It is slightly, but still entirely, possible that neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden will win a majority in the Electoral College. Under one scenario, the electoral votes even out to a 269-269 tie. In another, various states with divided government send forward competing slates of electors, a strategy that Republicans are actively pursuing. The Constitution provides that the House of Representatives certifies the winner in each state, and thusly the election. In the event of either of these outcomes, then the newly elected House makes the call on January 6, 2021.

In other words, the House could pick the next president, an outcome that last occurred 196 years ago. You might think that, with Democrats having a House majority, that’s good news for Biden. But it isn’t.

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The Constitution provides that each state delegation in the House gets one vote. In all likelihood, that vote in each state will go to the party that holds a majority of the delegation’s seats. So thanks to the small-state bias, even though Democrats have the overall House majority, Donald Trump would be well positioned to win the presidency in a House election. Republicans currently hold a majority of state delegations by a margin of 26 to 23, with Pennsylvania tied and Michigan likely to revert from Democratic to a tie (I will explain later).

But that could change if Democrats, as expected, pick up House seats in November—specifically, if they pick them up in the right places. That turns several House elections into “super-seat races” that could flip control. Here are a few of them.

Thanks to redistricting, Democrats could pick up one or more seats in Pennsylvania, currently 9D and 9R. In PA-10, around Harrisburg, Republican incumbent Scott Perry faces a strong challenge from Democrat Eugene DePasquale. In Bucks County, PA-01, Democrat Christina Finello has a decent shot at ousting Republican Brian Fitzpatrick. Dems would also have to hold two possibly vulnerable seats in PA-07 and PA-08.

Democrats also have a chance to flip Florida, which Republicans hold by one seat (14R, 13D). Two seats are considered flippable: FL-15, an open seat in the west-central part of the state (the Democrat is Alan Cohn), and FL-18, taking in part of Palm Beach County and two others (the Democrat is Pam Keith). On the other hand, Dems would need to hold two Dade County seats, and FL-26 (held by Democratic freshwoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell) is rated as a toss-up.

Two other possibilities are the at-large seats in Montana and Alaska. Montana is the better shot of the two, since the seat is open and the Republican, Matt Rosendale, lost the 2018 Senate race to Jon Tester; former state legislator Kathleen Williams is the Democrat. In Alaska, the Republican is the longtime incumbent, Don Young, who has been in Congress since 1973. Alyse Galvin, who lost this seat 53-47 in 2018, is the Democratic nominee (she’s officially a registered independent).

If the Dems flipped these four states—just one seat in each—they would have a majority of state delegations, and would have room for one state to flip from majority-Democrat to tied. That could well be Michigan (7D, 6R, 1L), where Libertarian Justin Amash is retiring and the Republican is favored to win the seat, shifting the Michigan delegation to a tie. On the other hand, Dems do have a long-shot chance for a pickup in MI-06 (Kalamazoo area), where progressive Democrat Jon Hoadley is challenging incumbent Republican Fred Upton.

Democrats would also have to defend or improve upon their one-seat majority in Arizona and Colorado, and hang on to their seat in Maine-02, where Democrat Jared Golden appears to be comfortably ahead. Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire are also Democratic-held, but that could change if Republicans flip one seat.

The craziest scenario is in Minnesota, where Democrats currently hold a 5-3 edge. There’s a question as to whether MN-02, in the south suburbs of Minneapolis, will hold its election in time to weigh in on the hypothetical January 6 presidential vote. The sudden death of the candidate for the “Legal Marijuana Now Party,” Adam Weeks, triggered a provision in state law (to allow so-called major parties, which the Legal Marijuana Now Party qualifies as, time to find another candidate) that pushes back the election to February 9, 2021.

Angie Craig, the Democratic incumbent, has sued to move the election back to November 3. But if she loses, that drops the Democratic advantage on January 6 to 4-3, and Democrats also have to hold MN-07 (the western half of the state), the most conservative district in the country with a Democratic incumbent (House Agriculture Committee chair Collin Peterson).

In sum, taking a majority of House delegations is something of a long shot. But this year, everything is worth a try. And the super-seats are worth pursuing.

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