Oliver Contreras/Sipa USA via AP Images
President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the evacuation of American citizens and their families, as well as vulnerable Afghans, in the East Room of the White House, August 20, 2021.
Joe Biden’s approval ratings have dropped to new lows in the latest polls. His net approval is basically zero—50-50 in the latest CBS poll and 49-48 in NBC’s. Politico’s Monday story began with the predictable overwrought declaration “President Joe Biden’s honeymoon with the American people is over.”
Is it? For Biden’s first six months in office, he seemed to be leading a charmed life. The pandemic was winding down, the recovery was on track, and the very narrow legislative majority in both houses paradoxically worked in Biden’s favor. The usual circular firing squad on the Democratic side was suspended for the duration. Party voting discipline prevailed.
In March, Biden managed to get the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act through Congress on a straight party-line vote using the budget reconciliation process, and vowed to come back for trillions more in the fiscal year 2022 reconciliation. The Rescue Plan included far-reaching goals that had long eluded Democrats such as a Child Tax Credit that is essentially a universal basic income for families with kids. It also included an extension of increased unemployment compensation, $1,400 in direct payments to individuals, $350 billion for state and local governments, $130 billion for public schools, and a great deal more.
Those who might have been critics to Biden’s left, such as Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Sherrod Brown, traded loyalty for influence. Those who had been more centrist all their political lives, such as Chuck Schumer, became Biden’s loyal floor leaders on behalf of a program well to their left. Much of Biden’s larger program was cast in the language of a Green New Deal, keeping climate activists on board.
Circumstances had impelled Biden to go big. Substantively, his policies and appointments were startlingly progressive, while his own persona was reassuringly moderate. Policies that might have seemed alarmingly radical coming from a Warren or a Sanders seemed just commonsensical coming from Biden.
But even before the Taliban overran Kabul, you could make the case that Biden was heading into more difficult territory. Thanks to the delta variant, the hoped-for end of the pandemic has not materialized, and that makes people less appreciative and more anxious. The recovery is going well and wages are up, but citizens are starting to be concerned about inflation. Climate disasters are now up close and personal. That vindicates progressive voices in the wilderness but is not a great circumstance for a sitting president.
Policies that might have seemed alarmingly radical coming from a Warren or a Sanders seemed just commonsensical coming from Biden.
And while Biden scored a big success with the filibuster-proof Senate passage of his infrastructure program, it will take a miracle to reach some kind of common ground in the House. There, nine conservative Democrats led by Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey insist they will vote down the infrastructure bill if Biden tries to tie it to a more ambitious $3.5 trillion public-investment program via budget reconciliation. Meanwhile, dozens of members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus insist they will vote against the infrastructure bill if it’s not tied to a bigger program.
The House leadership was hoping to get a rule enacted Monday night allowing consideration of both bills, tying the rule to consideration of the John Lewis Voting Rights Act as well. But unless Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Biden are able to peel off several members of the Gottheimer Nine, a final deal on infrastructure and the larger budget resolution package still depends on hard bargaining.
On top of this, we have Afghanistan. While polls show broad support for Biden’s decision to get out and there was no way that the final weeks were going to be easy, the media and the Republicans have engaged in cheap second-guessing at Biden’s expense.
Back in April, Biden overruled a request from his top generals and his defense secretary to keep a small force of 2,500 troops in Afghanistan pending conclusion of a peace treaty with the Taliban by September. Critics contend, fairly or otherwise, that this course would have made for a less chaotic exit.
However, the Taliban government, desperate for economic help and political legitimacy, has been cooperating with the airlifts and with leaders of the previous regime. Former Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd, of all people, speaking on CNN, pointed out that more than 30,000 people have been evacuated from Afghanistan without the loss of a single American life.
Even after the ignominious collapse, an AP poll on August 19 found that 62 percent of Americans believed that the Afghan War had not been worth fighting. And since it was Donald Trump, not Joe Biden, who commenced the troop drawdown and committed plans for total withdrawal by mid-2021, it’s not likely that the current debacle will do lasting damage.
BIDEN’S PATH TO POLITICAL SUCCESS was always going to be agonizingly narrow. The man does not walk on water, and some missteps were inevitable. His successes with the economy and the pandemic have had only minimal effects on winning over Trump voters, because politics in America have become so thoroughly tribal. That said, the hardcore Trump base has narrowed some.
Take the case of masks, a totemic issue for the die-hard (pun intended) Trumpers. According to an August 17 Ipsos poll, 64 percent of Americans support their state or local government requiring masks to be worn in public spaces, and that includes 44 percent of Republicans. Fully 69 percent support such mandates for teachers and students, and two-thirds oppose state prohibitions on local mandates. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the champion of such prohibitions, may be a hero to the conservative base, but broad public opinion is moving away from him.
There is wide support for most of Biden’s policies, and Biden is seen as likable. The puzzle is why more of this doesn’t rub off on Biden. But polls bounce around and are known for anomalies and cognitive inconsistencies.
For instance, Gallup’s long-standing series asking people about their satisfaction with their own lives is near record highs, up dramatically from 2020, the year of the peak pandemic and recession. At the same time, when Gallup asks whether the country is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction, 69 percent say wrong and just 30 percent say right. Even so, this is a dramatic improvement from early January, when 88 percent said the country was going in the wrong direction.
There is wide support for most of Biden’s policies, and Biden is seen as likable. The puzzle is why more of this doesn’t rub off on Biden.
I don’t have a crystal ball, but it seems to me that six months from now, as we begin the midterm election year, Biden will be looking pretty good. The internal splits between the progressives and the Gang of Nine will get nastier; and primary season will enflame these tensions. At the same time, neither the left nor the center wants to be responsible for destroying Biden’s core agenda. At the end of the day, even as soon as October, some version of the $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation is likely to pass, minus a few hundred billion to appease Joe Manchin et al.
The pandemic is taking longer than anticipated to subside. But by early 2022, most Americans will have had their booster shots, and people will have adjusted to a new normal of intermittent masks and great care with indoor events. It beats dying. Public opinion on the management of the pandemic is likely to be on Biden’s side.
With enactment of the reconciliation package, more benefits will be going to more Americans, courtesy of Biden and the Democrats. The economic tailwinds predicted for mid-2021 will be evident by early 2022. Due to the tribal nature of Trumpism, however, all these successes will peel off only a small fraction of Trump voters. But a small fraction is a lot in a closely divided electorate.
And in 2022, the fissures in the Republican Party, both ideological and personal, will be more in evidence. Trump will not be on the ballot; that could be a plus or a minus. But he will do useful damage in ousting electable Republicans in swing districts.
There is also a debate among strategists about whether Democrats are suffering from voter fatigue more than Republicans. As the out party, Republicans may be more highly motivated than Democrats to go to the polls. We will get a preview of this in the California recall election. However, with Congress and the future of American democracy literally at stake, there is likely to be a massive mobilization on the Democratic side, reminiscent of the 2018 midterms.
What remains to be seen is whether all these mobilized Democrats will be allowed to vote and to have their votes accurately counted. That is why the single most important question looming over all others is whether Congress will be able to enact some version of voting rights.
If it does, the Democrats have a decent chance of holding Congress. If we don’t get voting rights, Biden and his program could be popular, but the Republicans aided by the Supreme Court could still steal the 2022 election and the future of our democracy.
