Jandos Rothstein
What seems like two centuries of campaigning comes to an end today.
Harold Meyerson, editor at large
What are you most interested in seeing the outcome of on Election Day and why?
Presidency, obviously. For the future of American politics, the state that interests me most is Texas.
What do you think was the most important moment of this election? What will we look back on as the turning point?
COVID’s arrival and Trump’s do-nothing response (that’s not a moment, it’s nearly the entire year). The moment that hurt Trump the most was his performance in the first debate.
OK, you’re on the spot, who wins? How’s this going to shake out?
Biden. Democrats pick up 18 House seats. Senate? Dems will take it if Cal Cunningham hangs on to win. If not, good chance Republicans have 51.
Gabrielle Gurley, deputy editor
What are you most interested in seeing the outcome of on Election Day and why?
Senate races: Alaska, Arizona, Maine, Montana, the Senate Six.
The U.S. Senate needs to get reacquainted with American democracy. If Democrats attain the majority, can Chuck Schumer wield power effectively and herd his cats or does he set himself up for a leadership challenge? If GOP and McConnell persevere, can Democrats develop a backbone and a strategy?
What do you think was the most important moment of this election? What will we look back on as the turning point?
The lynching of George Floyd.
OK, you’re on the spot, who wins? How’s this going to shake out?
Biden/Trump: Trump
House: Dems
Senate: ?—Can’t call it. Neither would surprise.
Alexander Sammon, staff writer
What are you most interested in seeing the outcome of on Election Day and why?
Where Republican support will come from, and what the latest version of the Republican coalition looks like. It seems likely that Biden adds seniors and suburbanites to his already robust support of cities and rich people, while Trump is going to gain considerably among Black males and Latinos, adding to his already robust rural support. That’s a coalition that on its face sounds like the base of a socialist party 100 years ago, and it’s certainly a group whose interests the Republican Party has no interest in representing (that’s of course not the entire coalition—there are the shareholder fundamentalists, the evangelicals, the fascists, and the QAnon folks too). I think there’s still a lot of tectonic demographic movement within the parties that has yet to resolve itself.
Bonus answer: Progressive ballot measures in conservative states and conservative ballot measures in progressive ones. Example: $15 minimum wage in Florida and Prop 22’s caste system for gig workers in California.
What do you think was the most important moment of this election? What will we look back on as the turning point?
The most honest answer is probably that there was no turning point—generic D has been polling favorably against Trump since like the second he was sworn in. Maybe the signing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act? That was extremely unpopular, it was actually all Trump accomplished in four years, and it showed that Trump, for all his bluster, is just a regular Republican, pursuing regular Republican stuff, which people hate.
Over the horizon, though, I think there remains an important turning point when the Democratic Party circled the wagons around Biden to crush Bernie Sanders, compelling Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar to exit the race. The coalition Biden is going to win with, swapping Latino and Black support for whites and seniors, is not an especially durable or sustainable one long-term, which could come back to bite the party in a major way.
OK, you’re on the spot, who wins? How’s this going to shake out?
The rules have been sufficiently rigged such that Biden needs to win by 10 to win by 2. I think he’ll win by more than 2.
House: Dems ~250
Senate: Dems 51-48; one runoff TBD in Georgia
Brittany Gibson, writing fellow
What are you most interested in seeing the outcome of on Election Day and why?
I’m most interested to see which state has the longest polling place lines and what time some of the last voters in the country will cast their ballots on election night (and early hours the next morning). Long lines are an easy way to observe which states or counties did not prepare well enough to run their voting sites. Even though it shouldn’t happen to voters (and disproportionately affects voters of color), it is a little inspiring seeing how determined people are to participate in America’s democratic process.
What do you think was the most important moment of this election? What will we look back on as the turning point?
One word: coronavirus. It changed how people voted, both in the primaries and the general, and shone a light on the voter suppression that isn’t often at the forefront in elections—even though it definitely should be.
OK, you’re on the spot, who wins? How’s this going to shake out?
If I had to bet, I would say Liverpool is going to win. The Premier League is off to a bizarre start (including my beloved West Ham’s incredible results in the last couple of weeks) but, ultimately, I think Klopp’s management will lead the Reds to their second title in a row. Oh, you mean how the U.S. election will shake out? I have absolutely no idea.
Paul Starr, co-founder
What are you most interested in seeing the outcome of on Election Day and why?
I assume Biden will win the popular vote. The only question is by how much, and whether that margin is large enough a) to carry the Electoral College, and b) to represent so resounding a defeat for Trump that it is a defeat for Trumpism itself. That’s the only long-term hope for American democracy.
What do you think was the most important moment of this election? What will we look back on as the turning point?
I don’t think there was a campaign event that was an important turning point. The turning point was Trump’s response to the pandemic early in the year. Nothing else comes close.
OK, you’re on the spot, who wins? How’s this going to shake out?
Biden/Trump: Popular vote: 53% Biden, 45% Trump. Electoral College: 354 Biden, 184 Trump.
House: Democrats gain 8 seats.
Senate: 51D, 49R
Robert Kuttner, co-founder and co-editor
What are you most interested in seeing the outcome of on Election Day and why?
Most important outcome: Biden wins overwhelmingly and Trump is forced to concede. Networks calling Florida for Biden would achieve that.
What do you think was the most important moment of this election? What will we look back on as the turning point?
Trump catching COVID, which personalized his recklessness with the virus, and made his arrogance and incompetence the defining issue in the election.
OK, you’re on the spot, who wins? How’s this going to shake out?
Biden wins 303 electoral votes by Wednesday noon, with PA and WI still outstanding. Of swing states, he wins AZ, MI, MN, NC, FL, ME-02, and NE-02. He may win GA.
Senate: 52-48. Dems lose Alabama, pick up AZ, CO, ME, NC, one of the two GA seats, plus either IA or the other GA seat.
House: net gain of 15
Marcia Brown, writing fellow
What are you most interested in seeing the outcome of on Election Day and why?
It has to be the presidency. I’m battling dual feelings of utter dread for the future of the republic and slight hope. As an Ohioan, I’m curious about how the state shakes out after four years of Trump. And then I’m curious about how Pennsylvania votes, too, given the state’s certain importance this election.
What do you think was the most important moment of this election? What will we look back on as the turning point?
The coronavirus pandemic and subsequent economic fallout—and, of course, the social unrest and protests in the wake of George Floyd’s killing at the hands of police. I know that’s more than one thing, but I think it all falls together with one thing helping to precipitate the next. Trump’s and Biden’s responses to each of these events helped illuminate their characters during the election cycle.
OK, you’re on the spot, who wins? How’s this going to shake out?
I think Democrats will take the House and—hopefully not after weeks of litigation—that Biden will win the presidency. I’m hopeful Democrats will have a trifecta, but there are too many ways for Democrats to lose. Ergo, I think the Senate stays in GOP hands.
David Dayen, executive editor
What are you most interested in seeing the outcome of on Election Day and why?
The states that showed incredible turnout in early voting, with numbers at or above their 2016 level before the polls opened on Election Day. Strange things can happen when you get turnout that’s closer in number to the overall population than the usual size of the electorate. In particular, I’m looking at Texas (108 percent of 2016 turnout), Montana (99 percent), North Carolina (95 percent), Georgia (94 percent), and Arizona (91 percent).
What do you think was the most important moment of this election? What will we look back on as the turning point?
March 11, 2020, the day Tom Hanks announced he had coronavirus, and Utah Jazz basketball star Rudy Gobert disclosed his diagnosis as well. That led to the cancellation of the NBA season, the national lockdown, and essentially the end of life as we know it in America. The next eight months were just Trump at sea during a crisis, something we knew in the back of our heads would happen but something he was able to avoid until the pandemic. Nothing else has mattered, and nothing else will define Trump in history.
OK, you’re on the spot, who wins? How’s this going to shake out?
President: I have Biden 322-Trump 216. Biden takes the Clinton states, plus PA, MI, WI, AZ, NC, GA, ME-02, and NE-02. The South rises again as a battleground, and late deciders flock to Biden.
Senate: The most annoying thing usually happens, and that would be a 49-49 Senate with two special elections in Georgia in January. However, I think Cal Cunningham ekes it out in North Carolina, changing this to 50-48. Montana is an outside shot.
House: Dems +16
