Steve Helber/AP Photo
Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) greets supporter Barbara Cannon, of Stafford, as she shields herself from the sun, October 11, 2022, in Stafford, Virginia.
FREDERICKSBURG, VIRGINIA – One of the more closely contested races in the country is taking place in this historic colonial town about an hour south of Washington, D.C. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), the centrist former CIA agent who in 2018 flipped Virginia’s Seventh Congressional District, which had been run by the GOP for all of the 21st century, is facing a strong challenge from Yesli Vega, a police officer and sheriff’s deputy for Prince William County who is the daughter of Salvadoran immigrants.
Polling from the beginning of August showed Spanberger leading Vega by five points. Now, polling from the week before Election Day showed the race in a dead heat. Over the weekend, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), whom Donald Trump effectively chased out of Congress, endorsed Spanberger.
The race has been run, as they have across the country, on familiar themes of crime, inflation, and abortion rights. In the final weekend, I visited Spanberger’s district, speaking with voters in the reliably blue Fredericksburg, where the campaign’s headquarters is located.
Joe Clayton, a Fredericksburg resident of 12 years, said that while he had not voted yet, he planned on casting his for Spanberger. “There’s a ton of trucks with Vega [bumper stickers] on them,” he said. Clayton could best be described as a disgruntled progressive, who despite his more radical leanings will likely always vote for a Democrat. He said he’d recently been reading about the Black Panthers.
“Spanberger is not someone I want representing me. She’s establishment,” Clayton said. But he described the prospect of Republican control as the end of democracy. “I just can’t believe we got to this point, people talking about civil war more than ever,” referring to the mix of libertarian types he said he would overhear chatting at the head shop he currently works at.
Unlike Clayton, TJ Martin, a veteran who served in the Army for five years, was firm about his opposition to both Spanberger and Vega: “I’m sick of football team politics.” He recalled his frustration under Obama, then Trump’s continuous antics, and the media’s light-handed approach to covering the Biden administration.
Martin’s friend, Tyler, who requested his last name be withheld, interjected and said that his now-passed father, a veteran too, loved Spanberger at first. But over time, she supported legislation that Tyler could not recall, that compelled his father to write a constituent letter. “I don’t think he heard back,” Tyler said. The two continued, “You can’t bullshit ‘everyday’ people.”
I stopped at a dive bar in Fredericksburg’s main downtown strip. As Ice Cube’s “It Was A Good Day” played overhead, Ari, a single Hispanic father, told me, “This is what I listened to back on the West Coast.” Head bobbing, Ari requested his last name be withheld, and explained that his family was still in Los Angeles. After serving in the Marine Corps, he was stationed in Virginia and just never went back.
“I’m a family man. I don’t know if I’ll be voting,” he said. Ari considers himself center-right/conservative, something he arrived at because of his military experience. “I haven’t voted in a while,” he said, but that he liked what Vega stood for: “tax reform, private property rights, and her background in [local] law enforcement.”
The race has been run, as they have across the country, on familiar themes of crime, inflation, and abortion rights.
As for Democrats, President Biden has been a disaster, Ari said. “I think Latinos are leaving the Democratic Party.” As a single father with three children from ages four to ten, when it comes to Virginia Republicans like Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s concerns over parental voices and school curriculum, “I feel heard,” he said, though he was quick to point out that he didn’t vote for him.
Aside from everyday expenses rising, Ari is a Type 2 diabetic, and said that under Trump his insulin medication costs were manageable, but now the limit’s been pushed. (In the Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats capped out-of-pocket insulin costs at $35 a month. The Affordable Insulin Now Act, which would have extended that cap to all diabetes patients with insurance, passed the House with every Democrat, including Spanberger, supporting it. Only 13 Republicans joined them. It never got a Senate vote.)
Ari continued, “Why are we sending billions, check after check after check to Ukraine? But then you look at what’s happening here? Homelessness, crime, and the economy.”
THE NEXT DAY, I POSTED UP outside of a downtown voting location at 601 Caroline Street. When I asked Richard and Peggy, decades-long residents of Fredericksburg who requested their last names be withheld, who they voted for, Richard said, “Vega! What’s not to like about her? We like where she stands on crime, education, and small government.” The couple had no personal qualms with Spanberger. While they wouldn’t ever vote for a Democrat, they saw Spanberger as admirable, but the Biden administration as a catastrophe. “It’s gonna be real close,” Richard said as he walked toward his car.
“If Spanberger ran for president, I would vote for her,” said John, a 27-year resident of Fredericksburg who requested his last name be withheld. “She is an unusually moral, patriotic citizen. You can talk about the economy, inflation, but none of that matters if democracy fails.” Before John walked away, he said the Republican Party, thus Vega too, represents the undermining of democracy.
Predictably for this liberal town, most people walking outside 601 Caroline Street said they voted for Spanberger. While most of them were not as affirmative in their support for Spanberger as John, similarly, none mentioned the economy as their driving reason to vote for Spanberger or for Democrats in general.
A younger Spanberger voter, Micah D, said, “I came out here today for reproductive rights.” Another younger voter who requested anonymity, a recent arrival to Fredericksburg, said, “I’m not sure about local politics, but abortion was enough to bring me out to vote.”
In the final months of the campaign, the Spanberger team leaned into highlighting Vega’s position on abortion. One ad from the end of August featured a tweet from Vega, celebrating the overturning of Roe as “an amazing victory in the fight for the life and Liberty of our most vulnerable, the unborn.” That quote was followed by reports of Vega saying she supported a nationwide ban on abortion. Vega has since walked back on that position; she says she now supports exceptions for rape, incest, and when the mother’s life is at risk.
Doubling down on that message, at the start of October, Spanberger released another ad titled “Seventeen.” In the ad, a resident from the district named Adelle says, “At the age of 17, I was raped. It was devastating. Yesli Vega said women can’t get pregnant from rape because it’s not happening ‘organically.’ That made me sick. It’s irresponsible coming from a police officer who should’ve known better.”
That ad has turned into a flashpoint for voices on both sides about the stakes of the race. A 60-year-old Black resident, who requested anonymity, initially declined my question about how she voted, saying, “That’s my personal business.” But then she turned around and told me, “I tell you what, I was raped when I was 12 years old. Don’t tell me about rape, incest, or whatever because I have personal experience. I come from a law enforcement family and I’m personally pro-life. That’s why I said it’s personal.” She added that even the Republicans in her family planned on voting against Vega because of her rape comments. “You can’t do that when it comes to women’s rights.”
Meanwhile, Kimberly, a 14-year Fredericksburg resident who requested that her last name be withheld, referred to Spanberger’s “Seventeen” ad by asking, “Is that all you have to say? Look at the crime and inflation.”
Even for voters sympathetic to Spanberger, some said the “Seventeen” ad went too far. One single mother told me, “I can’t believe I have to explain what rape is to my eight-year-old daughter because of a political ad.” Another resident, Gabby, a behavioral technician who works with children diagnosed with autism, had similar remarks. “You have to be careful of what you’re offering. I have patients seven, eight years old in my day job, asking me what rape means, what ‘organically’ means, and I shouldn’t be the one having to have that talk with them.” She continued, “I’m voting for Spanberger, but the aggression is too much.”
DOWN IN VIRGINIA’S SEVENTH, the fate of democracy is in the eye of its beholder. Vega has spent the final days at rallies alongside Gov. Glenn Youngkin. The Prospect reached out on several occasions to the Vega campaign with no response.
Meanwhile, when I arrived at the Spanberger campaign HQ in Fredericksburg, staffers told me they were not focused on rallies or public appearances. Instead, they said they were focused on get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts. On two occasions, I asked if I could attend a canvassing launch or speak with a representative from the campaign, but both my requests were denied. One staffer told me, “We can’t get anybody to talk with you. Our brains are fried for GOTV, sorry.”
On the first Friday of every month, businesses in downtown Fredericksburg stay open late, and that’s where I met two local Republican operatives. They only agreed to speak with me on the condition of anonymity. “Vega represents a voice that hasn’t been heard. She’s found a receptive audience,” one of them said. I asked them why Spanberger hadn’t tapped into that audience. He replied, “She’s supporting the current administration and that’s clearly not working,” referring to the economy.
One of them, a Hispanic gay veteran, told me, “You don’t get much more of a unicorn than me.” He continued, “We’re not gonna be marginalized anymore. The Democratic Party has taken advantage of minorities and this is the 21st century.”
There’s a chance that the Spanberger campaign’s laser focus on ginning up turnout could eke out a victory. However, according to these two, a Vega victory would be thanks to a mix of her winning the same suburbs that put Youngkin over the finish line, on top of cutting into the margins of liberal Fredericksburg. At the end, one of them said, “The red wave is real. It’s democracy in action.”
