The most important number on Tuesday night in Iowa wasn't eight-the miniscule margin by which Mitt Romney edged out Rick Santorum for first place. It was 3,255-the negligible estimated increase in turnout over the 2008 GOP caucuses. Given the sizable number of independents -23 percent of the total-who showed up to (mostly) vote for third-place finisher Ron Paul, it looks like fewer Iowa Republicans actually voted this year. To say the least, this complicates one of the most popular story lines about 2012-that Republicans are simply wild to unseat President Barack Obama and that the Democrats are facing a serious "enthusiasm gap" against their fired-up foes. (In fact, a Gallup poll in December already began to puncture this myth.)
So They Say
Daily Meme: Spin Cycle
What We're Writing
- Patrick Caldwell reports from Iowa on Santorum, Romney, and the battle for the GOP's soul.
- In New Hampshire, Harold Meyerson beholds "the wrath of Newt."
What We're Reading
- Driven, patrician, and distant: a profile of the real Mitt Romney
- Santorum is the Republicans' idea of fun.
- Perry is bitter about "loosey-goosey" caucuses and independent voters.
- John McCain endorses Romney in New Hampshire.
- Romney gets a grilling.
- Instant Nostalgia Department: Bachmann's Greatest Hits
- Was Obama the winner in Iowa?
Poll of the Day
Rasmussen's latest tracking shows Obama trailing a generic Republican, 47 percent to 43 percent.