Blog: The Monkey Cage

Our next Russian election post comes from Sam Greene of the New Economic School in Moscow, Russia. ************** If we want to start to understand the meaning and potential consequences of what has been happening in Russia since (and, indeed, somewhat before) the Duma elections on December 4, I think we need to ask one […]

Our next election report comes from Regina Smyth of Indiana University, who is currently spending the year in Moscow, Russia. ************* Long before polling began in Russia’s December parliamentary election, it was clear that the uneventful contest that the Kremlin hoped for was not going as planned. In a rare misstep, the Kremlin’s political strategists […]

Jonathan Livengood writes: I was reading a couple of your papers on voting (http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/rational_final6.pdf and http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf), and I wondered whether the results apply when people vote for third-party candidates. In part, I was wondering what it would mean in your model for a third-party vote to be decisive. Is it rational (and under what conditions) […]

Ron Paul is a hot search term in Iowa. Is this a sign of strong support, or that no one knows who he is?

Journalists covering Romney’s new position in favor of the Ryan Medicare plan have focused on how this will be a boon for Democrats if Romney gets the nomination.  “The reason this matters: It will give Dems a weapon in the general election against Romney,” says Greg Sargent, blogging at the Washington Post. That may be […]

When I am not writing for The Monkey Cage, I have been known to spend some time studying post-communist politics. I have also written about protest following electoral fraud. Thus recent events in Russia are of great interest to me both personally and professionally. As many of you by now know, last weekend’s Russian parliamentary […]

Google search activity may or may not be predictive here, but this is interesting nonetheless: For virtually all of 2011, including the past month, there is more search activity about Ron Paul than any other candidate.  I thank John Coleman for highlighting this for me. What could this mean?  Maybe Ron Paul supporters just spend […]

Context is key in any analysis of voter demographics.

We are pleased to welcome Dario Cepo, an associate in the Miroslav Krleza Lexicographic Institute with the following post-election report on the Sunday’s Croatian parliamentary elections. **** This past Sunday’s general elections in Croatia saw a landslide victory for the opposition four party Kukuriku coalition, led by the left-of-centre Social Democratic Party (SDP), as well […]