Alessandro della Valle/Keystone via AP
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a meeting with Swiss Federal President Viola Amherd, in Kehrsatz near Bern, Switzerland, January 15, 2024.
It’s been a chaotic and contradictory week for Ukraine and its backers. In Washington, Congress continued to wrangle over billions in still-stalled Ukraine aid. In Kyiv, rumors of a military shake-up ratcheted up, as President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared ready to replace the popular head of Ukraine’s armed forces. In Brussels, the European Union finally overcame Hungary’s objections and approved a $50 billion financial assistance package for Ukraine.
It foreshadows a potentially tenuous 2024 ahead for Ukraine as Russia’s full-scale invasion enters its third year.
Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive failed to recapture significant territory, the front lines barely shifting. Ukraine now has dwindling ammunition, and the West has failed to keep up. Its military needs to mobilize and train a new cohort of troops, though the government is torn on exactly how. All of that takes time, and Ukraine must reconstitute, regroup, and defend against a Russian force that now outmans and outguns Ukraine.
President Zelensky, for his part, looks ready for a reset. He is reportedly on the verge of firing Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the head of Ukraine’s armed forces and a popular figure among the general public and the military’s rank and file. Zaluzhny, who defended Kyiv in the early days of the Kremlin’s assault, and who led the liberation of Ukrainian territory in 2022, is seen as a hero in the country.
But Zaluzhny’s candid assessment to international media of the counteroffensive’s setbacks challenged Zelensky’s government, especially as the leader sought to persuade a more reluctant West to keep giving. These tensions between civilian and military leadership likely won’t help that pitch, and may intensify discontent among war-weary troops and the population. And no matter who leads Ukraine’s armed forces, they will struggle without renewed military aid.
Ukrainians are facing up to the reality that there are no guarantees the U.S. will actually pass Ukraine aid.
That aid has to come from the United States, and it has run out. The United States has provided $71 billion to Ukraine, more than $43 billion of that in military assistance, according to the Kiel Institute. No other country comes close in security aid (although other European countries have given a greater share of their much smaller resources). For months, Republicans have blocked a $60 billion package for Ukraine, which is now tangled up in domestic battles over migration. The Biden administration is trying some creative work-arounds, but they are barely a bandaid. Europe is delivering crucial economic aid, and it is ramping up production of equipment like artillery. But it does not have the capacity or stockpiles to replace what the United States can rapidly provide.
“It’s a little bit like an IV from U.S. warehouses straight to the arm of the Ukrainians on the front line,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, of U.S. military support. “And we just ripped that out. We just ripped that IV out.”
The upending of U.S. support to Ukraine always loomed, with the 2024 presidential election and the possible return of Donald Trump. But these congressional fights have made the U.S. an unreliable partner a lot sooner than expected, with unpredictable outcomes for Ukraine. “The question is of resources,” said Hanna Shelest, director of security programs at the Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism and nonresident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “You can have the best plans and the best people. But if these people don’t have ammunition?”
As the U.S. is dithering and as Ukraine’s own internal politics look shaky, Europe has renewed its commitment, and done so despite hints of potential cracks. European funding will keep Ukraine’s economy afloat, and this $50 billion aid package comes at just the right time, with just the right amount of symbolism. “Russia cannot count on any European fatigue,” French President Emmanuel Macron wrote on X. Only Russia-friendly Hungary obstructed, and the EU ultimately overcame that, too. “I actually think Ukraine is in a much better place than it’s genuinely given credit for because of the EU,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels.
“The political will is basically there,” he added. “Now, on the military side, that is not the case. There is no doubt the U.S. remains the critical military partner and supporter of Ukraine.”
Yet the growing political division in America right now is, basically: Well, why should the U.S. be that critical partner? Ukraine still has bipartisan support, but Republican hard-liners, and an increasing number of their voters, are opposed to more funding for Ukraine. Some of this is a strain of GOP isolationism, and some of it is fealty to Trump himself, who, for, well, reasons, is not a fan of Ukraine. He has claimed that, as president again, he’d make a deal to end the war in 24 hours—which probably doesn’t sound all that appealing to Kyiv or NATO allies.
The forces seeking to extricate the U.S. from the Russia-Ukraine war are growing stronger, and the grim reality in Ukraine makes the case for support that much harder. Ahead of the counteroffensive last year, the subtext was that Ukraine had to prove it could put Western funding and military equipment to good use, and make real gains. It has had successes this year, including in contesting Russia in the Black Sea. But the front lines are entrenched, with minimal progress on Ukraine’s strategic aim to liberate its land and people.
“The mood in the West has changed a lot after the realization that the counteroffensive did not really meet the expectations, and many argue that it has failed,” said Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. “That raises the question: Is it even worth it to continue the support?”
This all creates a doom loop for Ukraine. It needs Western backing—in the form of robust U.S. military aid—to have any shot at resisting or pushing back Russia. The longer U.S. aid stalls, the harder it will be for Ukraine to plan and to defend. This may have something to do with the back-and-forth over Gen. Zaluzhny’s fate. “If American military aid passes, then I think the political and military leadership of Ukraine will have more room for maneuver in decision-making,” said Petro Burkovskiy, executive director of Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation.
But the longer Ukraine is stuck, the harder it is to prepare for whatever operations Russia might attempt this year. Moscow has recovered an edge in manpower and ammunition, but its own offensive success is not guaranteed in 2024. A lot of that depends on how Ukraine responds, or whether it can. And it can’t without Western aid.
Ukrainians are facing up to the reality that there are no guarantees the U.S. will actually pass this Ukraine aid. Still, some hope that the EU’s aid breakthrough might put pressure on Washington. As urgent as it is for Ukraine, if it does arrive, it also comes with the question of: What next?
That is what makes 2024 so precarious.
Even if all Western assistance comes through, it probably will not be enough to win the war in one season or even in the next year. But without U.S. support, it makes a Ukrainian victory now, or in the future, a much more daunting task. None of that spells out the end of the war, or even some real move toward negotiations. Russia has always thought it could outlast the West, and it can wait, especially if Vladimir Putin believes 2024 will get better for him—maybe with more territory in hand, maybe after he has rigged himself an overwhelming 2024 election victory, maybe with a friendlier U.S. president around for any talks.
“Russia thinks that it can win,” Bergmann said. “Negotiations have to happen when both sides think they can’t win.”
