Jeff Chiu/AP Photo
People watch from their vehicle as President Donald Trump, on left of video screen, and Democratic candidate Joe Biden speak, during a presidential debate watch party at Fort Mason Center in San Francisco, October 22, 2020.
Joe Biden’s challenge to Donald Trump to participate in two early debates, the first in June, the second in September, suggests both nerve and desperation in the Biden camp.
It’s painfully clear that Biden’s policy successes haven’t translated into gains in the polls. The optimists around Biden insist that once people really start focusing on the election, wavering Democrats will come home, along with suburban independents and Haley Republicans. Thus the idea of a June debate, to signal the start of the general-election campaign.
But the premise that an early debate will be good for Biden depends on whether Biden can project the kind of energy and coherence that he did in his State of the Union address. The problem is that Biden is rarely that effective or energetic when speaking off-the-cuff, as he must do in a debate. And low energy reinforces the picture of a president too old for the job. Trump, whatever his several liabilities, is a high-energy performer.
Biden was dismal in his recent CNN interview with Erin Burnett, stumbling over words and sounding frail. Or look back at his appearance with Shawn Fain on the picket line with UAW workers last September. It’s hard to imagine a better setting or a more friendly audience. But Biden spoke for just 87 seconds, and his remarks were low-wattage, far from the kind of energetic performance you’d expect at a labor rally. The applause was appropriately tepid. Fain, by contrast, was on fire. One wished that Fain was the candidate.
Team Biden is taking a big gamble. The hope is that with enough preparation, Biden can stay on message for the key talking points and project the same level of energy that he did at the State of the Union—and maintain it for 90 minutes.
But Trump tends to dominate a stage, as he did when he loomed over Hillary Clinton. And no matter how much Biden prepares, Trump will throw curveballs that nobody, not even Trump himself, can anticipate. Biden will have to be at his absolute best, and then some, to come up with effective impromptu rejoinders.
The other Biden bet is that as Trump wanders, as he always does, he will say a lot of crazy stuff. But for that to really damage Trump, Biden will have to nail him on it, ad lib.
Biden may yet find that voice. Let’s hope so.
It’s not even clear that the debates will happen on the terms that have been widely reported by the press as a done deal. In baiting the Trump campaign into accepting two early debates, Biden’s video declared, “Donald Trump lost two debates to me in 2020. Since then, he hasn’t shown up for a debate. Now he’s acting like he wants to debate me again. Well, make my day, pal. I’ll even do it twice.”
Biden’s big policy blunder is failing to make a sharper break with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
The Trump camp agreed. The Biden and Trump camps also jointly persuaded CNN to change the ground rules to all but exclude Robert Kennedy Jr., given the hurdles needed to become eligible for the debate.
The Biden campaign, knowing how Trump feeds off the energy of a crowd, also insisted on no live audience. The Trump campaign accepted those terms too. It all made Biden seem strong and Trump compliant.
But Trump himself was not party to the agreement. And Trump has a long history of walking away from deals, and of lying about what was agreed to. As the June date approaches, we can expect that Trump will start making demands that change the terms his campaign leaders accepted. If history is any guide, they may even get fired by then.
There is only so much that Biden can do to improve what is effectively a tied race, and he needs to maximize every possible advantage. His one big policy blunder is failing to make a sharper break with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. After temporizing, Biden finally suspended shipments of large bombs, as a warning to Netanyahu not to invade Rafah.
But Netanyahu went right ahead and invaded, and declared that if Israel had to fight alone, so be it. That was the signal for Biden to declare that all military support for Netanyahu was frozen, pending a pullout from Rafah, an end to the Gaza war, and a regional settlement. But instead, Biden temporized yet again.
If Israel’s war on Gaza is still going on as of the Democratic Convention in Chicago in August, much less on Election Day, that alone could cost Biden the presidency. There are falsely comforting polls which show that Israel-Palestine is not high on the list of issues that most young people care about. But those who do care happen to care a lot. And there are large numbers of students in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Biden will win or lose by a point or two.
The problem is not just the appalling slaughter of Palestinian civilians, but the picture of a president with two endless wars, who cannot control the inhumane actions of an ally whom the U.S. has given tens of billions in aid. It suggests a leader who is complicit, and worse, weak. Netanyahu’s repeated humiliations of Biden compound the problem. Trump, by contrast, has been even more slavishly pro-Netanyahu and far more anti-Muslim. But Trump gets a free ride on the issue.
Let’s hope that Biden gets a lot tougher on Netanyahu while there’s time. That, at least, is within his control. The larger problem is Biden himself, and foibles that do not improve with age.
Biden is taking one other big risk in the June debate. If he falls flat, the calls will resume for him to step aside before August.
