Here's a truth that no politician, Democrat or Republican, is going to tell you: There is absolutely nothing that our government could have done to prevent the attack that took 14 lives in San Bernardino last week. If you're looking for a lesson we can learn from it, that's the one you ought to take. Universal background checks for gun purchases is a good idea, but it wouldn't have stopped that couple from killing those people. Starting a new war in the Middle East is a terrible idea, but it also wouldn't have stopped it.
We can't stop an attack like the one in San Bernardino before it happens because our ability to do that is dependent on the plot coming to the government's attention. In order for that to happen, knowledge of the plan has to leak out in some way-to someone who overhears the planning and tells the authorities, to an informant whom the attackers bring into their confidence, over an electronic medium like email or telephone that is being monitored. But what if all you have is a husband and wife working out the details over their kitchen table, and buying their tools of mayhem the same way a hundred million other Americans do, down at the local gun shop? There is no way to stop that.
Which brings us to another truth you won't see politicians admit: terrorism will never be defeated or vanquished or eliminated or banished. It's a technique, attractive to those with limited power precisely because it's relatively easy to use.
Actually, there was a politician who once acknowledged that reality. In 2004, John Kerry said, "We have to get back to the place we were, where terrorists are not the focus of our lives, but they're a nuisance." He cited organized crime as a comparison of what we ought to seek: "It isn't threatening people's lives every day, and fundamentally, it's something that you continue to fight, but it's not threatening the fabric of your life." His opponent was positively gleeful that Kerry would say something so weak and defeatist. "I couldn't disagree more," said George W. Bush. "Our goal is not to reduce terror to some acceptable level of nuisance, our goal is to defeat terror by staying on the offensive, destroying terrorist networks, and spreading freedom and liberty around the world." His campaign rushed to make a television ad based on Kerry's quote, and four years later, when he left office, Bush's strength and resolve had ended the threat of terrorism for all time.
Just kidding-for some inexplicable reason, George Bush didn't manage to "defeat terror." But now the members of his party say they've got the plan that will take care of it. Donald Trump, who already promised to start torturing prisoners again (not that we have any Islamic State prisoners to torture, but whatever), now says if you want to defeat terrorism, "You have to take out their families." Sure, it's a war crime, but just think of the satisfaction we'll get from killing a bunch of children! Ted Cruz is talkin' the tough-guy talk too. "If I am elected president, we will utterly destroy ISIS," he said on Saturday. "We won't weaken them. We won't degrade them. We will utterly destroy them. We will carpet bomb them into oblivion. I don't know if sand can glow in the dark, but we're going to find out." Yeehaw.
Republicans are uniquely immune to learning from history, and at the moment they've convinced themselves that once we crush the Islamic State, terrorism will no longer be much of a problem. But of course that's just what we thought about Al Qaeda, and it's what we'll think about the terror group spawned by our next Middle East war. Let's just kill these guys, and then the problem will be solved.
How many Americans actually believe that? It's hard to know. But there's no question the San Bernardino attack has ratcheted up Americans' fear. The apparent futility of any practical solution to a threat like this one seems only to drive people into the arms of a hateful demagogue like Trump and the demi-demagogues who scuttle after him. Maybe people actually buy the absurd idea that if we just go after this one terrorist group with enough ruthlessness, no other terrorist group will ever emerge. Maybe people actually believe that if we subject American Muslims to enough suspicion and harassment, no American Muslim will become angry enough to want to kill his or her fellow citizens.
But let's be honest: what the Republicans are selling isn't a practical plan to solve a practical problem, because the problem defined that way-can we stop an attack just like this one?-has no real solution. So what they promise is an amplification of all the poisonous emotions swirling inside you. Are you afraid? I will validate your fears and shout that things are even worse than you think. Do you hate? I will give your hatred voice, point it outward, translate it into pledges of rage and violence visited upon the guilty and innocent alike.
In his Oval Office address Sunday night, President Obama tried to make a different argument, that "Our success won't depend on tough talk, or abandoning our values or giving into fear. That's what groups like ISIL are hoping for." But he too insisted that "The threat from terrorism is real, but we will overcome it." It's what any president would have to say, I suppose, to reassure and comfort and give hope. The truth-that no matter what we do there will always be the possibility of terrorist attacks, and some of them will inevitably succeed-isn't something presidents are supposed to say.
The more important truth, also out of bounds for politicians, is that as horrifying as any one attack is, terrorism is a threat we can live with, just like we live with the threat of natural disasters or crime or the flu, all of which take many more lives than terrorism does. Somehow we manage to accommodate ourselves to those threats without losing our damn minds. Surely there's a lesson there.
