California's venerable Field Poll this week has come out with some new survey results which make clear that the Obama campaign would be well advised to open more headquarters in Montana than in the Golden State. According to Field, Obama leads John McCain by a cozy 24-point margin, 54 percent to 30 percent. When Field last polled in May, Obama’s margin was a mere 17 points -- the same as in the May polling by the Public Policy Institute of California.
And today, the Field Poll has more numbers to gladden a liberal's heart. According to Field, Proposition 8 on the November ballot -- the proposed constitutional amendment that would overturn the state Supreme Court's legalization of same-sex marriage -- is trailing by 9 points, with 42 percent of likely voters backing the measure and 51 percent opposing it. As a general rule in California politics, once a ballot measure falls behind, it stays behind.
These two surveys underscore two other general rules of California politics. The first is that in California independents tend to vote like Democrats, and that on social and cultural issues, they are, if anything, as or more liberal than Democrats. In Field's presidential polling, Democrats favor Obama over McCain by a 78-to-9 margin, but independents are not far behind, backing Obama over McCain by a 64-to-18 margin. (Republicans are going for McCain by a 65 to 16 margin.) And in Field's polling on the proposed gay marriage ban, independents' opposition to the measure actually exceeds the Democrats'. Indys oppose by ban by a 66 to 27 margin, while Democrats oppose it by 63 to 30. (Republicans support it, 68 to 27.)
How is this possible? When Field breaks down the polling by race, it's clear that the answer is Latino voters. Whites oppose the measure by a 54 to 41 margin, and a category that Field designates as “African-American/Asian” (one of the least helpful sub-group designations I've ever encountered) opposes it by the identical 54 to 51 margin. But Latinos, who constitute 17 percent of the state's likely voters and who cluster disproportionately within the Democratic Party, back the measure by 49 to 38.
Now, one theory beloved of Republicans is that Latinos, because they are culturally conservative, will end up in the Republican column. Not so, says Field. While backing the gay marriage ban, Latinos also support Obama over McCain by 64 percent to 21 percent. Which brings us to the second general rule of California politics: Latinos tend to be culturally traditionalist, as most new immigrant groups to the U.S. have tended to be -- but this cultural traditionalism doesn't affect their support for Democratic candidates and progressive economic positions.
In election after election in California, Latinos have voted for measures providing more funding for schools and according more rights to workers at the highest rate of any race or ethnic group, exceeding the rate of support for such measures even by African-Americans. Latinos' support for Democratic candidates has also been constant. And surveys have shown that they consider economic issues far more important than social and cultural ones in their deliberations on candidates for office.
Combine the Independent Rule with the Latino Rule, and you get a pretty clear sense of why America's mega-state is also one of its most liberal.
--Harold Meyerson
