As Garance notes, SEIU has always upheld that they won't endorse till late in the game. October is most often mentioned, though in 2004, they didn't endorse until November. But this seems precisely backwards. Theoretically, SEIU should take either one of two tacks: They should endorse early, like August, and spend a number of months actively organizing on their chosen candidate's behalf, thus showing that their endorsement offers something concrete. Or they should hold out the possibility of an endorsement till very late, incentivizing all of the candidates to offer concessions in the hopes of receiving it, but then either refuse to endorse anyone or, if the frontrunner has been the most pro-labor, go with them. What you really don't want to do is wait till it's too late for your organizing to change the internal dynamics of the race and endorse someone who isn't likely to win. In that case, your endorsement doesn't demonstrate any concrete effect and doesn't endear you to the eventual nominee. If SEIU does choose to endorse this cycle, their strategy will seem to have been the worst of both worlds. --Ezra Klein
