Republicans have promised a confirmation battle for President Obama's Supreme Court pick, Appeals Court Judge Sonya Sotomayor,
but it's going to be tough for the GOP to oppose the first Hispanic Supreme Court Justice. George Stephanopoulos has already tweeted that "for Latinos, this pick has force of Thurgood Marshall" after speaking with Rep. Jose Serrano. No doubt that factor crossed the mind of the president's political advisers, given that the share of Latino voters is one of the fastest growing in the United States. Steve Cobble and Jose Velazquez argue that they provided the decisive margin of victory for Obama in 2008, and keeping those voters energized and engaged is a key priority for the president going into 2010 and 2012, especially with the difficulty of pulling of comprehensive immigration reform, a top issue among Latino voters. Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting this is a pick made for that reason alone or even at all -- Sotomayor is obviously well qualified for the position, but everything the president does has political ramifications and it's important to understand them. In fact, the logic of the pick may preclude a difficult confirmation fight if Republicans decide this is not only a battle they can't win, but that if they do succeed in blocking Sotomayor they will further alienate a constituency that is already indifferent to the Republican brand.
There are few Republican politicians who can credibly claim to be competitive with Democrats among Latino voters -- John McCain post-election bitterness didn't help --if their party takes a vehement stance against Sotomayor, it will have repercussions in elections to come. One tea leaf to read will be the responses of the Republican Senate candidates in Florida, Marc Rubio and Jeb Bush Charlie Crist, who need to be competitive among Latinos in Florida even as they compete for conservative voters who would oppose the Democratic president's pick in their contested primary.
-- Tim Fernholz
