Sue Ogrocki/AP Photo
Issue 1 supporters cheer as they watch election results come in, November 7, 2023, in Columbus, Ohio. Ohio voters have approved a constitutional amendment that guarantees the right to abortion and other forms of reproductive health care.
It doesn’t get much better than Election Day 2023. Had the voters’ verdict been mixed, the same pundits who pounced on an outlier New York Times/Siena poll over the weekend showing Trump beating Biden would have spouted more gloom. Overnight, the storyline reversed. But before we get too euphoric, the caveat is that off-year elections often have their own distinct rhythms.
First, however, the good news. Abortion rights continued to trump Trumpism, and not just in Ohio where reproductive rights advocates continued their perfect seven-state winning streak with a double-digit win for a constitutional protection.
Abortion rights helped Democrats keep control of the Virginia Senate and take back the Virginia House, thanks in large part to Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s support of a 15-week ban. The issue figured in Pennsylvania where Democrats won a state Supreme Court seat, and in Kentucky where Gov. Andy Beshear, an abortion rights supporter, was re-elected by five points.
Much of this is a story of turnout. Off-year elections are low-turnout affairs. When reproductive rights are at stake, women, young people, and progressives generally turn out. Also, well-educated voters are better informed and more likely to turn out, especially in low-profile off-years. That demographic used to back Republicans; now they tend to vote for Democrats.
The Democratic tilt in off-year elections has been evident not just in odd-numbered years when only a few state and local races are in contention, but in even-numbered years when Congress is up, such as 2022 and 2018. But of course in none of these years was Joe Biden on the ballot.
So the question is whether voter enthusiasm around issues like abortion rights and support for effective down-ballot candidates, as well as grassroots organizing, will produce coattails in reverse. Biden is not going to pull in down-ticket Democrats. They will need to pull in him.
Despite yesterday’s huge gains, Biden’s negatives are still with us—notably his age and his foreign-policy quagmires. Even Biden’s good economy is not a plus because it hasn’t yet transformed the life chances of working people who’ve been dragged down by Biden’s neoliberal predecessors.
The Republicans may yet save Biden—with Trump’s prosecutions and tin-pot dictator antics; with issue positions that are far from what most Americans want; and a far-right and dysfunctional U.S. House. But don’t expect 2024 to be anything other than agonizingly close.
