Matt Rourke/AP Photo
Republican presidential candidate former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign event at Gilbert H. Hood Middle School in Derry, New Hampshire, January 21, 2024.
Like you, I worry that we could soon be governed by a raving madman who could bring the end of the American republic and maybe World War III as well. But in the past few days, evidence of Trump’s deepening dementia and Nikki Haley’s willingness to make it a campaign issue actually gives me some hope.
If Haley can hold Trump to a 10- or 12-point win in New Hampshire tomorrow, the contest for the Republican nomination is far from over. And the more that Trump campaigns, the more his cognitive impairment will be in evidence. This will not scare off the MAGA hard core, who would vote for Trump even if he were drooling, but that’s not the entire GOP electorate.
After Trump confused Haley with Nancy Pelosi and blamed Haley for failing to properly handle Capitol security in the attempted coup of January 6, 2021, Haley, age 52, did something very sly. She bracketed Trump with Biden as two old men who are not “mentally fit” to govern. And she did it in a way that almost sounded compassionate.
“My parents are up in age, and I love them dearly,” she said. “But when you see them hit a certain age, there is a decline. That’s a fact—ask any doctor, there is a decline.”
Yes, Trump has always sounded unhinged. But if you watch his campaign events, or read transcripts, the deepening decline is floridly clear. The Pelosi confusion was not a one-off. Trump free-associates and blurts out whatever pops into his consciousness. Here’s Trump, at an event January 17, accepting Vivek Ramaswamy’s endorsement:
By the way, you think you have cold weather out tonight? That was 40 degrees below zero. I said, “Don’t worry about it, we’re in a car.” Oh, really? If you had to walk like 15 feet from the car to the door, it was a very, very troubling experience. Your net worth will skyrocket as soon as we come in or as soon as it’s known that we came in.
Say what?
I’ve been reading a lot about the 1930s, and the synergy between an angry electorate and raving dictators. In that era, deranged lunatics came to power because the political mainstream failed and orthodox economic remedies made things worse. Right up until the 1932 election, the anti-Nazi governing coalition despite deep recession was pursuing austerity economics. Hitler took power in January 1933.
It was as if the people, who supported a madman like Hitler, themselves went mad.
Something similar explains Trump. A large fraction of the American electorate feels ignored, passed by, and condescended to. Their grievances need to be taken seriously, and the neoliberal center bears much of the responsibility for the rise of the MAGA right.
That said, there is increasing evidence that Trump is more of a psychopath than even the dictators of the 1930s. As Haley makes this more of an issue, so will the media. And Trump, for once, will be on the defensive on an issue that is up close and personal.
If Haley should defy the odds and win the Republican nomination, that would present a very different sort of formidable challenge for Joe Biden. That’s a subject for another day. First, let’s see what happens in New Hampshire.
