Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM) attends a news conference outside the U.S. Capitol, November 2, 2021.
It was only a matter of time, in an evenly divided Senate, before one senator or another became incapacitated. Lightning finally struck, and true to the Democrats’ unlucky streak, it struck one of their number, Sen. Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico.
Luján, who is just 49, is hospitalized following brain surgery to relieve pressure from a stroke. His prognosis is said to be good. But there is no telling how long he will be out, and in the meantime the Republicans now have a 50-49 working majority. (Mitt Romney is currently out, having tested positive for COVID, so there is a de facto 49-49 split, at least for this week and maybe longer.)
This turn of events prompts several observations.
For starters, Stephen Breyer looks even more like a self-centered goat than ever. If Breyer had just retired earlier, his successor would be confirmed by now.
With the clock ticking, there is now more pressure on Biden to name the more conservative of two likely Supreme Court nominees, Judge J. Michelle Childs, a former management-side labor lawyer who is a favorite of Biden patron Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina. One of Clyburn’s selling points is that Childs can get some Republican votes. This Clyburn move, jamming his president, comes at the expense of Breyer’s former clerk and protégé, federal Appeals Court Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, who is far more progressive.
Second, we will now learn just how shabby the Republicans are. Will Mitch McConnell try to take advantage of the (hopefully) temporary 50-49 majority to claim his old job as majority leader and take Republican control of the Senate? Will Republicans freeze confirmations? Will alleged bipartisan Republicans such as Susan Collins, Mitt Romney, and Lisa Murkowski, do the decent thing and not take advantage of an absence due to illness?
The immediate consequence is that several key confirmations that go through committees on which Luján serves will likely be bottled up. Those include Commerce and HELP (Health, Education, Labor and Pensions), where several key regulatory and labor department confirmations are pending.
Two of those nominees are the deciding votes on the FTC and FCC, which are now deadlocked, 2-2 each, Alvaro Bedoya at the FTC and Gigi Sohn at the FCC. This setback also lengthens the odds against swift floor confirmation of Biden’s three nominees to the Fed, who have drawn solid Republican opposition.
It will also further delay passage of some version of Build Back Better, where every Democratic vote counts.
If the unthinkable happens and Luján dies or is compelled to resign, New Mexico law provides that the governor shall immediately name a temporary successor, with the vacancy for the remainder of the term to be filled at the next election. New Mexico’s governor is a progressive Democrat named Michelle Lujan Grisham (who is no relation to the ailing senator). So if McConnell were to take advantage and seize control, it would be short-lived.
