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From left, House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) are seen on Capitol Hill, September 14, 2022.
House Democratic leaders, prodded by a narrow election loss, are turning the top offices over to the youngest leadership team in many decades. In a carefully choreographed transition set for November 30 with no contested elections, Hakeem Jeffries of New York, 52, will become Democratic leader; Katherine Clark of Massachusetts, 59, becomes whip; and Pete Aguilar of California, 43, becomes caucus chair.
They will succeed Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 82; Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, 83; and Whip James Clyburn, 82. It is the most extreme such generational transition ever. The average age gap is more than 30 years.
Jeffries will become the youngest Democratic leader in the House since Charles Frederick Crisp of Georgia was elected to the post in 1891, at age 46. Jeffries could remain minority leader or Speaker for at least 20 years.
The octogenarian still very much in office, of course, is Joe Biden, who turned 80 Sunday. And the case for his retirement has just grown both weaker and stronger.
It is weaker than it was before November 8, because Biden, despite his underwater approval ratings, managed to work miracles with a minuscule majority in Congress. And he beat the widely predicted midterm blowout. Given all the challenges he faced, his improbable successes, and the immense stakes, historians could well remember Biden as a great or near-great president.
But that same election produced some possible candidates who could be far more dynamic and galvanizing for Democrats in 2024 than Biden at age 82. The most interesting of these is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, 51. She won a double-digit re-election victory and took with her the first Michigan Democratic House/Senate/governor trifecta in 40 years. Whitmer would bring substantial executive experience, and she would likely do well in other Midwestern swing states.
Biden is more likely to be remembered well if he steps aside after one successful term rather than risking repudiation at the polls. Though Biden, for now, insists he is running in 2024, sometime next spring before the election cycle begins in earnest, he will need to do some hard thinking and take soundings.
He will consult his own inner circle, his wife, and key legislative leaders whom he has known for decades. If they are honest, most will advise Biden that he has been a great president and that it’s time for the next generation.
But Biden will make up his own mind. And if he runs, his party will have no choice but to unite behind him. His decision will be fateful. For the Democrats to take back the House and hold the Senate, the 2024 nominee needs to win big and have coattails. In 2020, Biden had none.
In the meantime, the new House leadership, despite the nominal unity slate, has work to do. Progressives are not enamored of Hakeem Jeffries. Despite his membership in the Congressional Progressive Caucus, at times he has seemed more of a corporate Democrat than one of them, having created a PAC with Josh Gottheimer.
There is also a lot of bad feeling in the caucus about the way this was managed by Pelosi and Hoyer. All other members considering running for leadership posts were told to step aside. Pelosi even sent out a message congratulating the three designees long before their formal election next week.
The DCCC, whose next chair is yet to be determined, also cries out for reform. All too fittingly, the current chair, Sean Maloney of New York, lost his own seat. Progressives want the DCCC chair to be elected by the caucus, not appointed by the leadership. That process has yet to be determined, but that small reform would be a smart Jeffries gesture to his critics.
The DCCC, in this cycle, failed to support insurgent Democrats and disproportionately spent on incumbents. Worse, it used the same tired formulas of spending heavily on consultants and TV ads, and far too little on grassroots voter mobilization.
To win in 2024, the Democrats’ change needs to be more than generational.
