Bryan Woolston/AP Photo
Mitch McConnell challenger Amy McGrath (D-KY) rallies with supporters during a campaign stop at Woodland Park in Lexington, Kentucky, August 25, 2020.
The disaster scenarios for voter suppression and Election Day sabotage leave out one piece of hopeful news. The Senate election story could be very different from the presidential.
The reason is that most of the states where Democrats have a good shot at picking up Republican-held seats have reasonably honest election administration.
By contrast, several key swing states needed for a Biden victory risk all manner of voter suppression and manipulation—notably Florida and Wisconsin, but also Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have Democratic governors but Republican legislatures.
But the Senate breaks differently.
Colorado and Maine, two of the most likely Democratic pickups, have exemplary election procedures. North Carolina, which was one of the worst suppressors in 2016, now has a Democratic governor and a state Board of Elections headed by a nonpartisan chief. North Carolina mischief has also been constrained by court orders.
Montana, where Gov. Steve Bullock has a shot at taking a seat from Republican incumbent Steve Daines, has a history of honest election administration.
Alaska, which has been trending Democratic, now shows incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan running even in the polls against challenger Al Gross; it’s another state with a history of basically honest election administration.
Arizona, another good possibility for Democrats, abused purges last time. It has a Democratic secretary of state and less prospect of mischief than in some years past.
Even Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell faces a challenge from Amy McGrath, now has a Democratic governor and only limited suppression.
In Iowa, where Republican Joni Ernst faces a close race against Democrat Theresa Greenfield, the Republican legislature passed a very restrictive voter ID law in 2017, which will disenfranchise an estimated 260,000 voters.
The extreme case is Georgia, with two Senate races this year. It is the reeking center of purges, manipulated polling places, and other forms of voter suppression.
That could cost Democrats two otherwise winnable seats, possibly three if Iowa is very close. But at least six other possible pickup states have reasonably fair elections. Take a moment to thank the Founders for federalism.
The presidential election, of course, is a whole other story. Even if Biden is the runaway winner, it will be trench warfare between now and January 20.