Allison Bailey/NurPhoto via AP
A protester leads a march to the White House following a solidarity rally for Ukraine, February 20, 2022, in Washington.
Russia’s war on Ukraine upends the entire post-1989 world order. It brings us closer to nuclear conflagration, worsens the inflationary cycle, and reverts the world to East-West standoff. But for those inclined to look on the hopeful side, there could actually be some beneficial side effects.
Vladimir Putin. The most immediate is the damage to Putin’s standing at home and the possibility of his ouster. Conversely, President Biden has gotten a big bounce in his approval ratings for his leadership in the crisis.
Globalization. The supply chain fiasco was one nail in the coffin of naïve globalization. The need to extricate Western banks and corporations from the Russian orbit is a second. National self-reliance is looking better and better again.
National Economic Planning. The flipside of ending corporate-led globalization. The U.S. needs to decide what we have to make domestically.
Patriotic Corporations. Before this war, banks and multinationals were telling national governments that extricating themselves from foreign commitments based on unacceptable behavior by the trading partner was either an impossibility or would take years. Now, everyone from Apple to Boeing is doing it in a matter of days.
More Transparent Capitalism. To isolate Russia’s economy, the Treasury found powers it wasn’t sure it had and was reluctant to use. There are plenty of kleptocrats right here in the USA. Having set this precedent, democratic governments can go after corrupt capitalists everywhere.
Smoking Out Oligarchs. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, of all people, has introduced legislation that will require all property owners to be identified as people, no longer hiding their identity behind trusts or straws. That could become the international norm.
Controlling Crypto. One worry is that Putin will be able to evade financial controls by using cryptocurrencies. This strengthens the hands of the regulatory hawks and weakens the crypto enthusiasts in the administration.
Energy Transition. The spike in oil prices, the shortage of crude oil, the realization that OPEC won’t come to our rescue must accelerate the transition to renewable energy. It’s no longer just a contentious matter of addressing climate change, but of energy security.
Democracy Versus Autocracy. Putin, as the arch thug, makes autocrats and kleptocrats everywhere look bad, from Syria to Saudi Arabia to Hungary to Mar-a-Lago. The Ukrainian resistance inspires other resisters. It rallies the world citizenry to the defense of democracy.
Trump and Putin. These two are joined at the hip. All those clips of Trump lionizing Putin, as recently as his praise for the Ukrainian invasion, in real estate terms no less, will be played over and over in the 2022 campaign.
None of this is to make light of the horrible suffering of the Ukrainian people, or the risks of a wider catastrophe. But you just never know what transformations will be wrought by a war.
World War II turned out pretty well for the U.S., social justice, and the democratic West. Maybe we will get lucky again this time.
