Unsanitized: The Fall Surge in Cases Has Arrived, But Not Deaths

Plus, Democrats get a small request on government funding. This is The COVID-19 Daily Report for September 23, 2020.

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First Response

Back in June, right when cases in the U.S. were beginning to spike upward, I wrote a story about how deaths were not likely to rise to the same level we saw in the spring. We are now a few months on from that prediction, and I want to note that it was correct. At the peak, the U.S. reached a little more than half the level of deaths nationwide as it did in April. The factors mentioned back then—younger people being infected, better protocols in nursing homes, and more medical knowledge on how to handle the virus—were all part of this improvement.

That an “improvement” still leads to, at the peak, about 1,400 people dying every day in the U.S. from the virus, and even now around 800 or so, reflects just how dangerous this virus is. Until we get some kind of vaccine or solid treatment that doesn’t just mitigate but cures the disease, the loss of life would be too great from resuming normal activities. We’ve learned that most outdoor activities, combined with safety features, are OK, but winter is coming.

Remember that we were all told that the late spring and summer months were when the virus would be suppressed, and a second wave of cases would probably hit in the fall and winter months. In part that was assuming from the small sample size of the 1918 pandemic, because that’s the trajectory it took. But if you look at France and Spain and the Netherlands right now, you are seeing a significant rise in cases, with France and Spain already at a higher level than the U.S. on a per capita basis.

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In this country, there’s been a minor surge in cases over the past 10 days, with about half the states seeing case growth of some kind. The U.S. should be better thought of as akin to all of Europe, with different pockets in different regions. States that hadn’t seen high numbers like Montana and Utah, and upper-Midwest states like Wisconsin and Minnesota, are the hardest-hit at the moment. It’s their turn on the curve.

Deaths and hospitalizations in the U.S. are still trending downward. In Wisconsin and Minnesota, however, hospitalizations are trending up, whereas in Utah and Montana they’ve leveled off. In general, deaths abroad have not started to surge either, again due to better treatments and more protections for the elderly.

The UK and Europe are implementing some targeted restrictions, though it’s unlikely that you’ll see the same kind of lockdowns as before. We don’t know what the effects of people moving indoors in the cooler months, and getting together around the holidays, will do. But one thing we can say so far is that this hasn’t gone along the exact same trajectory as 1918. Then, the second wave that hit in the fall was a much more virulent strain of influenza. The majority of the deaths came in that resumption. This time, we’re not seeing too much mutation from the virus, at least not to the level that it becomes deadlier. There was some indication earlier that a slight mutation made COVID-19 more contagious. But that we can live with, relative to something that kills more efficiently. Deaths aren’t the only complication to worry about with this virus, of course, as it appears to be kicking-up long-dormant health ailments in many.

Regardless of the sighs of relief that so far the successive waves of the virus have not been as catastrophic as the first, we’re still in a situation where we’ve lost 200,000 Americans prematurely. It didn’t need to be this way. We could have let the initial lockdown suppress the virus more before reopening. We could have used common sense and practiced safety. We could have not turned simple things like mask-wearing into a display of partisan bona fides. We didn’t have to have this many people die.

The Unclean “Clean” CR

Yesterday we discussed how Mitch McConnell offered an opening to Democrats for additional stimulus for the economy, or defusing the threat to the Affordable Care Act, when he balked at the lack of $30 billion in farm bailout funds in the government funding legislation. This was a transparent effort to get some walking-around money for states like Iowa and North Carolina with tough Senate races. (Pelosi was cross-pressured by farm-state Democrats to give up the money, too.)

Turns out that Nancy Pelosi did extract a price for that $30 billion: “nearly $8 billion” in nutrition assistance. Specifically, it funds a program that converts the assistance kids would get with free school breakfasts and lunches into food stamps. So you’re talking about funding poor children got as a matter of statutory law, that Democrats had to fight to give to them under the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic, when schools are closed.

I consulted a calculator for assistance and was informed that 8 is less than 30, but Democrats also made sure that fossil fuel companies and refiners couldn’t take the farm bailout money, which was apparently a problem. Sadly, getting only one-quarter of the value back from Republicans in exchange for their wishes is almost an improvement on negotiations in this calendar year. In fact, Democrats’ initial ask for nutrition help was $2 billion.

The House passed the bill last night, and in my opinion, this does mean the end of any hope of pandemic relief until at least December 11, the next funding deadline. There’s a backchannel bipartisan effort to unlock $134 billion in leftover PPP funds for small business, but the last time PPP was reauthorized, practically no money went out the door.

So what we have is everyone, including Federal Reserve chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin just yesterday, knowing that the economy needs more stimulus, that cities are on the verge of making major cuts, that millions of unemployed people whose federal enhancements have expired are cutting back on spending, that small businesses will likely fail by the thousands. Gravity can only hold up a depressed economy for so long, and Congress has simply failed the country, both Republicans with their tight-fistedness and Democrats with their perpetual giveaways of leverage.

Days Without a Bailout Oversight Chair

181.

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