Daniel Lin/Daily News-Record via AP
Americans aged 18–34 have both the lowest approval rating and the highest disapproval ratings for President Biden of any age group.
Tucked away inside a lengthy podcast episode, White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain recently suggested that there was a hard deadline for the Biden administration’s long-anticipated decision on student loan debt cancellation. In an interview with Pod Save America regarding the State of the Union address, Klain went into detail on the vexing question of what the president will ultimately do about student loans, relating that the administration is considering again extending the payment moratorium that is due to expire on May 2.
The possibility of another extension of the freeze made headlines, but it was another comment Klain made that has the potential to be far more consequential for the 40 million Americans who owe federal student loan debt. The White House, Klain noted, is planning to make a decision on whether to use executive action to cancel student debt “before the payments resume.” This, as Politico pointed out, marked the first time the Biden administration’s decision-making on whether to cancel student loan debt has been formally linked to the resumption of student loan payments.
The administration has an out: They could just keep extending the payment pause indefinitely, forestalling a final determination. But that would be cancellation in practice if not in law. One way or another, a decision will have to be made, under Klain’s schedule.
That gives a firm promise for some resolution on an issue that the administration has been equivocating about for over a year, one that Democrats broadly have been promising for years. President Biden will ultimately be forced to choose between siding with his campaign-trail promise to cancel at least $10,000 in student loan debt, a position supported by numerous top Democrats, or the position championed by Domestic Policy Council head Susan Rice, who has emerged as the reputed leader of the no-cancellation camp. (The White House has denied Rice's role in the debate.)
Extending the payment freeze beyond January and into May, which happened only after broad outcry from Democratic electeds and activists as the omicron variant surged, had the knock-on effect of keeping payments paused until six months before Election Day. For good reason, Democrats both progressive and moderate are wary of the impact that reinstating a significant financial burden might have on the electorate ahead of a crucial midterm election cycle. Already the Education Department has extended some collections of defaulted loans until at least November.
Even if Biden and his inner sanctum have grown uncomfortable with student loan debt cancellation as a policy, its political expediency may be undeniable. With Americans contending with the reality of high inflation, corporate price-gouging, soaring energy prices, $130-a-barrel oil, and more, the thought of subjecting them to yet another household expense unnecessarily is hard to reconcile with the president’s new commitment to “protecting Americans from Putin’s price hike,” as he is now putting it. “We’re also going to keep working with every tool at our disposal to protect American families,” he vowed in a recent statement.
Shielding 40 million Americans from paying an average of $393 monthly in student loan debt would certainly qualify as a tool at the president’s disposal. The alternative—subjecting Americans to additional payments after they’ve already borne the brunt of elevated prices on gas, utilities, and food—would be nothing short of punishment for American families and the Biden administration both, right as the 2022 election cycle begins in earnest.
It’s important to remember, too, the demographic impact of such a decision. No group has turned so bitterly and totally against Joe Biden as young voters, who are responsible for his biggest collapse in support by far. Americans aged 18–34 have both the lowest approval rating and the highest disapproval ratings for Biden of any age group, and it’s not hard to figure out why. The president has made a pronounced point of rejecting police reform while being unable to deliver anything on climate change as yet, both peak concerns for millennials and Gen Z. As Joe Manchin continues to hide the ball on the possibility of a climate deal, it doesn’t look like anything will change on that count.
Of their top priorities, the cost of college is the only remaining category where Biden still has a real opening, even after free community college was made one of the first lambs sent to the slaughter in Build Back Better’s ill-fated negotiation. A recalcitrant Congress makes any major legislation look unlikely, which is in part why the White House has been producing more executive orders lately, on everything from ocean shipping consolidation to cryptocurrency.
Still, the administration has refused to release legal memos crafted by their legal counsel that describe whether they think the Education Department has the authority to zero out a significant amount of the student debt owed to the federal government, which comprises the vast majority of student lending. Given the administration’s discomfort with the proposal, there’s plenty of reason to believe that if those memos said the move was impossible, we’d know about it by now.
So while the Biden White House may not like it, the political climate may ultimately force them to hold their nose and make good on their promises. Democrats certainly cannot win without young voters, and if they have any hope of holding onto their majorities in 2022 they’re going to have to do something to juice youth turnout. Extending the payment freeze indefinitely would have the same impact, but score fewer political points.
At the very least, we know there’s a deadline for action on one of the issues that will ultimately define the Biden administration’s first term. Come May, they’ll put up or shut up on relieving student loan debt.
