Evan Vucci/AP Photo
FEMA Administrator Peter Gaynor briefs President Trump on the 2020 hurricane season in the Oval Office of the White House, May 28, 2020.
Even as the United States continues to struggle against the coronavirus disaster, it now must also prepare for the disasters of hurricane season. This year, the Atlantic coast is projected to be hit by up to 19 potential storms. Although not all will hit land, the pressure to prepare is mounting on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
“We all know it only takes one storm, if it strikes your area, to make for a very bad year. That’s why, when we issue the outlooks, hurricane preparedness goes hand in hand with the outlooks,” says Dr. Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
“When you have more active hurricane seasons, like we’re predicting this year,” Bell says, “there are many more storms forming in [the Tropical Atlantic] area, which means there are many more storms tracking westward toward the Caribbean, toward the United States.”
Hurricane season officially started on June 1 and will continue until the end of November, meaning a potential storm could complicate not only the social-distancing and shelter-in place orders but also the November 3 general election. And hurricane season runs concurrently with the United States’ wildfire and tornado seasons.
This is why the House Committee on Oversight and Reform has called a tele-hearing with FEMA Administrator Peter Gaynor for Monday, June 22.
When storms strike this season, it will be even more challenging than usual to assist people, as many will still be juggling concerns about public health and their finances.
“With a deadly tornado season already underway, above-average flooding to date, a hurricane season that began on June 1, and wildfire season looming, we are concerned that FEMA may not have the staff and other essential tools to successfully respond to multiple natural disasters during the ongoing coronavirus crisis,” a letter from the committee members states.
Gaynor reported to President Trump that FEMA is “more than fully funded,” according to an official White House transcript of their discussion on May 28. Thanks to additional funding from Congress to respond to the coronavirus, Gaynor insisted that the agency is “in a really great place when it comes to funding, personnel, and supplies.”
However, staffing and supply shortages caused by the coronavirus crisis are of concern, the House committee writes, as the number of people available to lead field operations has been cut in half and recruitment has been put on hold. National stockpiles of personal protective equipment have also been drained.
Even before the coronavirus began spreading across the United States, there were concerns about FEMA’s ability to effectively respond where disaster strikes. A September 2018 House report found that FEMA did not respond adequately during Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017, failing to deliver emergency meals and supply generators to supermarkets to keep food from spoiling. And this March, an inspector general’s report found that FEMA did not make the necessary advance contract agreements to provide these supplies, and the agency wasn’t keeping records of its contracts so it could hold contractors accountable for orders.
It’s not clear exactly how many people died from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, but researchers estimated the number to be more then 4,500—though the Trump administration at the time said the number was 64. Many of the people counted in the “unofficial” number died not just during the storm but also in its immediate aftermath.
When storms strike this season, it will be even more challenging than usual to assist people, as many will still be juggling concerns about public health and their finances. Those who would normally go to shelters or stay with family or friends may not be able to use those options because of social distancing.
Recognizing these problems, FEMA acting Deputy Administrator Carlos Castillo stressed the need for personal preparedness in his statement to NOAA, advising people to plan out their evacuation routes and prepare their go-kits now.
Bell also stresses personal preparedness, saying, “You are your first line of defense.” He’s speaking to more people than some might think: About 80 million people live in areas that can be impacted by hurricanes and their aftermath.
The intensity of hurricane seasons is cyclical, with multi-decadal cycles ranging from about 25 to 40 years. We’re currently in a high-activity cycle, which started in 1995. These cycles can be traced back to the 1800s, Bell explains.
The process of Americans putting themselves in hurricanes’ paths can be traced back almost as long. “As far as preparedness, remember that the coastlines have built up,” Bell says. “The Atlantic coast has built up by tens of millions of people over the last 50 or 60 years. So every time a storm threatens, there’s so many more millions of people in harm’s way.”
The House letter says its hearing will investigate how FEMA plans to provide relief during the possible simultaneous disasters, how it will provide essential supplies, and how it will protect its current staff members when they’re deployed to field operations.
There are also still questions on plans for mass evacuations that may be necessary and the need for temporary shelter.
“With these storms, getting prepared, knowing what you’re going to do when a storm threatens is so critical,” Bell says, “because so many more people—like I said, tens of millions more people—are potentially in harm’s way.”
