A Bolton-Biden Witness Deal?

It could be bad for Trump, and even worse for Biden.

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The Bolton revelations have some Republicans talking about a witness deal. The Republicans agree to call John Bolton, but only if the witness list includes Hunter and Joe Biden.

And so the plot thickens.

There are now at least four Republican senators who have suggested in the past two days that they may be open to calling Bolton, and that weakens Mitch McConnell’s bargaining hand. They include Mitt Romney of Utah, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, and—a surprise—Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. And possibly others, including Josh Hawley of Missouri.

And as two Georgetown law professors and a former Republican congressman wrote in Sunday’s Times, Chief Justice Roberts as presiding officer also has a constitutional right to call witnesses on his own authority. Even if Roberts just keeps that right in reserve, his views could also influence the Senate’s decision.

As more Republicans are open to calling witnesses, McConnell could demand for the sake of party unity that they go along with the Biden for Bolton deal, as Hawley has suggested. He’d probably prevail.

And that would be bad for both Biden and President Trump. Since the record is clear that Biden was simply carrying out administration policy in trying to root out corruption in Ukraine, the former vice president wins on the facts.

But in the TV drama, he loses big on appearances. And since he is also running for president, appearances are everything.

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Biden as a sitting vice president had no business advancing his son Hunter’s financial interests in Ukraine. That borders on outright corruption.

Had he not been the vice president’s son, the idea of Hunter joining the board of Burisma would have been a joke. Joe Biden in the dock may make a tough and truculent witness, though an unpredictable one. But the impaired Hunter Biden will make a disastrous witness.

All of this will remind Democratic voters that the last thing they need this year is a nominee whose family reminds them of Trump’s family. That would reinforce the sense that “they all do it,” and that Democratic swamp-dwellers are no different from Republican ones.

The Democrats need a candidate who is a radical contrast with the corrupt swamp that Trump turned out to epitomize. After the Joe and Hunter show, this reality will dawn on more Democratic primary voters.

Biden as witness also takes precious time and attention away from Biden on the campaign trail, and undercuts his case that he is the candidate best positioned to beat Trump. Not to be too cynical, but for the Bernie wing of the Democratic Party, this startling turn of events could be a twofer: Weaken Trump, weaken Biden.

If this scenario should actually happen, it would leave Sanders with an even clearer lane for winning the early primaries and precinct contests. And the usual front-runner/bandwagon psychology would set in, as it already has in the press coverage. If Bernie wins Iowa, it increases his chances of winning New Hampshire, and so on.

Of course, it’s still a very long way to the nomination. Even a weakened Biden will do well in the Southern primaries. With at least four viable candidates, it’s still likely that no candidate will have 50 percent of the delegates on the first ballot. And on the second ballot, almost anything could happen.

After the first ballot, the superdelegates get to vote. These are elected officials and party leaders who tend to be less progressive as a group than the current party base. They will be looking for a unifier.

Assuming that Elizabeth Warren manages to stem her recent slide and win some primaries, sources close to the Warren campaign tell me that she considers a deadlocked convention her best and perhaps only chance to emerge as that unifier.

However, a brokered convention would be disastrous for party unity in another sense. If Bernie Sanders comes into the convention with more elected delegates than any other candidate, and the nomination is snatched away from him a second time, the rage of the Sanders camp will make 2016 look like a unity feast.

All of this is of course informed conjecture at best. But two things are clear. The emergence of Bolton has weakened Trump and quite possibly Biden as well. And there will be lots more surprises between now and November.

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