Courtesy Caraveo for Congress
Democratic Colorado state Rep. Yadira Caraveo
Earlier this year, 314 Action Fund, a political action committee that supports Democrats, branded Colorado state representative Dr. Yadira Caraveo’s opponent for a new House seat, state senator Barbara Kirkmeyer, a fraudulent conservative. Ahead of the primary, the PAC launched an ad calling Kirkmeyer out for her reluctant support for former President Trump’s 2016 campaign and his calls for audits of the 2020 election. At the end of the commercial, the narrator says, “Colorado conservatives just can’t trust Barb Kirkmeyer.”
It was a move designed to elect one of her more conservative and less electable opponents. Kirkmeyer responded by calling herself a “conservative fighter” throughout the primary, and she bested her three other opponents. But by the end of the summer, she jettisoned the culture warrior image, scrubbing an appearance at a March for Life rally from the campaign website.
Caraveo used Kirkmeyer’s branding as an opportunity to attack Kirkmeyer as an extremist, unfit for the newly created congressional district. This was a wise move, because aside from the district having almost a 40 percent Latino population, 46 percent of registered voters in the district are unaffiliated with either party.
Earlier in the campaign, Caraveo found herself behind in polling. But she narrowed Kirkmeyer’s lead to two points by the start of August. No other polling has come out since. When I was in Colorado last month, Republican operatives at a Hispanic Outreach Center explained to me that their strategy was cutting into Caraveo’s stronghold: the sprawling suburbs north of Denver. According to the operatives, Weld County, where Kirkmeyer previously served as county commissioner and now as a state senator, was guaranteed to go red.
Now in the race’s final weeks, streams of Republican-affiliated money have flooded the district. After Labor Day, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) announced a $2.6 million TV ad buy. Yesterday, the NRCC dropped another $1.37 million on ads opposing Caraveo.
The LIBRE Initiative, a Koch Brothers front for Latino outreach, has also spent $127,403 in October so far on the race. Earlier this year, the LIBRE Initiative hosted a resources fair at a local high school in Adams County, which included scavenger hunts, music, food, and more, applying the sort of early deep-organizing tactics that build rapport with community members. Many Latino operatives in the Democratic Party space believe this is the best practice for Latino outreach.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, in March, House Majority PAC announced a $4.4 million ad buy for the Denver media market. While some of it is likely to funnel into Caraveo’s race, that $4.4 million will also be split with another candidate, Brittany Pettersen, whose open-seat district extends into Denver’s west side. Since Labor Day, the time when many campaign ads get under way, the House Majority PAC has not spent any additional money on the Caraveo race.
AT THE START OF YESTERDAY’S DEBATE between Caraveo and Kirkmeyer, the first prompt featured a question from a fifth-generation Coloradan whose son recently graduated from college. She said her son was considering leaving the state over the rising cost of housing and lack of economic opportunities. Caraveo responded by saying she’d support funding for affordable housing and examining what the federal government could do surrounding evictions. Kirkmeyer instead committed to cutting federal spending. “We don’t have a revenue problem. We have a spending problem.”
Outside spending could push Kirkmeyer over the finish line, even with her dicey history on abortion access.
When the moderator pushed for Kirkmeyer to specifically address affordable housing, Kirkmeyer responded that mortgage rates doubling over the last year was specifically because of inflation. Kirkmeyer added that since the Federal Reserve intends to continue raising interest rates throughout the rest of the year, the problem would only get worse until inflation was tamed.
On the topic of supporting small businesses, Kirkmeyer continued that excessive spending and tax hikes were the root of the problem, blaming the Inflation Reduction Act as emblematic. Meanwhile, Caraveo pointed to her experience as a doctor and her work in the state legislature passing a public option for Colorado last year, which Kirkmeyer did not support. “[A public option] is going to create pressure on insurance companies,” Caraveo said, “to make sure that we’re lowering costs for families [and small-business owners].” Kirkmeyer retorted, “Stop with the overburdensome regulations.”
As the debate moved into abortion, the moderator asked Caraveo about her support for Colorado’s restriction-free access to abortions, specifically asking about the third trimester. Caraveo responded by saying that as a congresswoman, she would support codifying Roe v. Wade into law. “As a doctor,” Caraveo said, “I trust people to make their own decisions.” Caraveo then pointed to how Kirkmeyer for her entire career has supported a national ban on abortion, only changing her stance over the summer. “Sen. Kirkmeyer does not have to be in your exam room or bedroom. This is a private decision.”
Kirkmeyer denied that she ever supported a national abortion ban. As the moderator asked Kirkmeyer to explain why she’s changed her view to now support abortions in the case where a mother’s life is at risk, Kirkmeyer said that decision was between a woman and her doctor. When pressed further about whether or not government should support rape and incest victims forced to carry pregnancies to term, Kirkmeyer said that the Hyde Amendment restricts funding for such measures. While the Hyde Amendment restricts federal funding for abortion, in Kirkmeyer’s scenario, an abortion procedure would be barred from taking place, thereby nullifying the amendment’s restrictions.
In a final response to Kirkmeyer, Caraveo said, “When we’re in the middle of a general election, perhaps she’s trying to moderate and hide her views from Coloradans. As a [county] commissioner, she actually voted to ban Plan B from Weld County clinics.”
The next topic was oil jobs in Colorado and the adverse health effects for nonwhite Coloradans who live near the Suncor oil refinery. Caraveo made the issue personal. “When I was little I grew up down the street from Suncor. As a pediatrician, I have seen the effects of bad air quality days on children.” She continued, “I can look out and see the haze that is over Denver. And I know that that day I’m going to be sending kids to the hospital because they’re going to have trouble breathing.” She used the moment to make a case for transitioning Colorado to expanding renewable-energy production, ensuring a transition for workers who’ve lost their jobs in the oil industry. Then she took a swipe at Kirkmeyer for opposing solar energy production by imposing regulations as a county commissioner.
Kirkmeyer blamed Democratic-led state regulations as the source of declining oil jobs, even as the moderator explained that such oil jobs were lost in Republican-dominated states too. “I have no idea what other laws or whatever kind of regulations were going on in those states. I just know what was going on here in Colorado, jobs were lost.”
NEAR THE END OF THE DEBATE, the moderator gave Caraveo and Kirkmeyer the opportunity to ask the other a question. Caraveo asked Kirkmeyer what she would do for seniors on Medicare, based on previous reports that Kirkmeyer said Medicare was bankrupting the country. “I actually spoke about Medicaid and not necessarily Medicare,” Kirkmeyer responded. “When it comes to Medicare and Social Security. I don’t think that we should be making cuts there.” Caraveo responded, “I should point out that thousands of kids in my clinic rely on [Medicaid].”
When it came time for Kirkmeyer to ask Caraveo a question, she referenced a letter reported by The Washington Free Beacon that Caraveo signed last year calling for Congress to “divest from immigration enforcement agencies like [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] and [Customs and Border Protection].” Kirkmeyer said, “[Do] you actually think that’s a way to secure the border and stop the flow of fentanyl, the dangerous poison that is trafficking … across our United States border?”
Caraveo stumbled at first. “I would not defund either of those agencies,” she said, touting support for “21st century technologies” that prevent drug trafficking. Then she pointed to how comprehensive immigration policy allowed immigrants like her parents to naturalize in the 1980s.
When the moderator asked Kirkmeyer about her previous support as a county commissioner to secede from the state of Colorado, Kirkmeyer defended her actions. She explained that the move was about bringing attention to state policies that disproportionately impacted rural Coloradans. “Would I go through that process again? Yes.”
Even as Caraveo has raised almost $1.2 million this cycle, nearly triple Kirkmeyer’s haul, the $3.2 million in outside spending could push Kirkmeyer over the finish line, even with her dicey history on abortion access. For a Caraveo victory, she’ll need to retain support in Adams County, hoping her message for America’s future eclipses Kirkmeyer’s laser focus on an economy that feels like it’s spiraling out of control.
