Mary Altaffer/AP Photo
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick speaks in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Saturday.
For a moment between Mitt Romney’s defiance and another GOP backslap for Donald Trump, Deval Patrick lit up the Twitterverse.
Journalists covering the Iowa caucuses were shocked to learn that Black Hawk County in the northeastern section of the state had scrounged up votes for a former Massachusetts governor scarcely known outside of New England.
The error was duly discovered and the culprits pelted with abuse in the usual social media pillory, but not before Patrick gained, if not votes or delegates, some free advertising. He got another speck of stardust when CNN decided that Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii was not worthy and instead invited him to a New Hampshire town hall forum on the eve of the state’s presidential primary, in spite of his nonexistent poll numbers.
These developments, insignificant though they may be, are no small things for a candidate whose late entrance into the 2020 presidential race continues to perplex. Such little things can’t generate the Big Mo or even the Medium Mo—so what’s he doing in the Democratic presidential race?
Whether savvy or certifiable, Patrick heads into the great state of New Hampshire, essentially “home turf” for a Massachusetts presidential candidate, with a bump, however imperceptible it seems. He’s now nudged his way up to 3 percent—dead last—in a CBS News/YouGov New Hampshire tracking poll from statistical insignificance last week.
For the front-runners, Patrick is like a human among the Borg, the hostile aliens of Star Trek fame: They can completely ignore him unless he becomes a threat. Vermonter Bernie Sanders comes as close as New Hampshire can to a favorite son. Pete Buttigieg’s stoic earnestness may appeal in this centrist state if he can put distinctive ideas behind the feel-good platitudes that some billionaires are willing to underwrite.
Like Iowa, New Hampshire is retail politicking at its hands-on finest, and Patrick is betting that reaching out to as many undecided New Hampshire voters (10 percent in a February 6 Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll of 500 likely Democratic voters) as possible will help him “exceed expectations” on his way to South Carolina—as Patrick described what he’s trying to achieve during a recent online press conference. (Politico reported that one supporter of Patrick’s Reason to Believe super PAC sees the governor placing first or second in South Carolina.)
Still, Patrick’s belated entry into the Democratic presidential primary raises innumerable questions. Did Obama ask him to enter the race, as some pundits have speculated? Patrick’s been coy on what his great and good friend has had to say, admitting only that he talked to 44, but not what they talked about.
Whatever convincing argument Obama may have made will be left to historians to ferret out. What is clear is that Patrick, after eight years at the helm of a state that punches above its weight in national politics, is as qualified as any of the Democrats left standing. One might even hazard the guess that Obama underlined that fact.
But here’s the rub: Trump makes qualifications as irrelevant as character in 2020. A demonstration of substantive public-sector executive experience means less in presidential contests than it once did, as Pete Buttigieg’s candidacy demonstrates.
Like Iowa, New Hampshire is retail politicking at its hands-on finest, and Patrick is betting that reaching out to as many undecided New Hampshire voters as possible will help him “exceed expectations” on his way to South Carolina.
However, Patrick noted in his CNN town hall appearance that he and Obama did chat quite a bit about political “methods,” like “running and connecting at the grassroots.” (Former Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis, the 1988 Democratic presidential nominee, also counseled Patrick to take a grassroots approach.) And Patrick’s no stranger to winning races which he began in obscurity. In 2006, Patrick was very much “Deval who?” in his first run for governor against Kerry Healey, the Republican challenger who served as Mitt Romney’s lieutenant governor.
Will being Bay State governor help in New Hampshire, and what does that mean for South Carolina, the hill where he has planted his flag (and where his wife Diane is currently campaigning)?
There’s never been a shortage of Massachusetts pols who want to be president, but neighboring-state-governor cool points may not get Patrick far in 2020. Michael Dukakis won New Hampshire in 1988, as did Mitt Romney in 2012 and John Kerry in 2004. Patrick, however, has been polling poorly in New Hampshire, and in South Carolina, too. That hasn’t stopped him from going on a bus tour of the state or pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into radio ads on South Carolina’s black radio stations.
If he manages to drum up a delegate or two or three, what leverage might he have at a possibly brokered Democratic convention? It’s this: If no front-runner can claim enough delegates and the way forward is muddled, Obama could well play kingmaker and could promote Patrick as a compromise pick on the top or the bottom of the ticket.
With establishment/corporate Democrats apoplectic over the prospect of a Sanders candidacy, Patrick’s late entry (with or without their explicit connivance) is a useful wedge against the feared Sanders juggernaut, potentially depriving him of votes in places like South Carolina, the first state with significant numbers of African American voters. After all, Patrick fits in comfortably with the crème de la crème of the corporate wing of the Democratic Party, with stints as an attorney and executive at Texaco, Coca-Cola, Ameriquest, and Bain Capital all on his resume.
There’s never been a shortage of Massachusetts pols who want to be president, but neighboring-state-governor cool points may not get Patrick far in 2020.
And despite Buttigieg’s appeal to that corporate wing, the former mayor’s sudden ascendance can’t be any comfort to Patrick (or Obama for that matter), as his abysmal record on race relations in South Bend makes him a nonstarter.
Is Patrick aiming for a vice-presidential nod? Plausible, but bringing Massachusetts into the Democratic fold, where it will end up come what may, would provide no help to a Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar, Biden, or Bloomberg ticket. A cabinet position? Maybe. He served in Bill Clinton’s Justice Department. But a presidential run is scarcely a prerequisite.
Patrick has raised more than $2 million nationwide, not enough to go anywhere but the shortest distance even if he does exceed expectations. Let us posit that Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg are unlikely to wake up sweating. (Moreover, Steyer is making a serious play for South Carolina’s black voters, not just by buying airtime, but by hiring black staff and contracting with black-owned campaign firms. According to the chairman of the state Democratic black caucus who suggested the strategy, Steyer is the only candidate who followed his advice.)
To be sure, Patrick has a good command of such issues as health care and infrastructure, though his post-gubernatorial forays into the health care industry might not reflect that. According to a Wall Street Journal report, he served on the boards of the telemedicine company American Well (which has ties to Blue Cross Blue Shield and other major health insurers) and the pharmaceutical company Global Blood Therapeutics, where he advised on executive compensation matters.
He’s personable, ready to display his South Side of Chicago tough-love wisdom at every opportunity—and judging by the chuckles of approval at the CNN town hall, that’s a style that can resonate. Obama cool, Patrick is not. The Hawaii native moved to Chicago only after a Columbia and Harvard Law education. Patrick, by contrast, grew up on the South Side and came out with a correspondingly more combative style, one that equipped him to deal with race-baiting.
If no front-runner can claim enough delegates and the way forward is muddled, Obama could well play kingmaker and could promote Patrick as a compromise pick.
There’s the presumption among some African American voters that Barack Obama will be the last black president for some time, so why not just let the white folks fight it out? Donald Trump and his fellow Obamaphobe Mitch McConnell have successfully unleashed the furies of racism, sectarian resentment, and authoritarianism. The United States has more than 200 years of history to remind us what that means for black folk. Kamala Harris and Cory Booker, younger and fresher faces than Patrick, couldn’t stay in the presidential contest this year. Why does Patrick believe he can—and, apparently, even emerge victorious?
During an online press conference plagued by audio problems, with queries screened by campaign staff “to better manage questions,” I put just that question to Patrick, who can be notoriously prickly when journalists ask questions he doesn’t like. To my surprise, the campaign staffer read it verbatim. Then, suddenly, more technical difficulties arose, and the press conference was over before Patrick could deliver an answer.
